The Hindu Business Line : Oil installations sitting ducks for hurricanes

TROPICAL Storm Cindy and Hurricane Dennis are but the harbingers of a "very active" 2005 hurricane season, with major US oil installations offering themselves as easy pickings for some of these destructive weather systems.

The hurricane season sets in by June, and this year it will extend till November 20, according to the Tropical Meteorology Project (TMP) forecast team at Colorado State University. Supply side worries during this period could work in tandem with other external factors to play havoc with oil market sentiments.

About a quarter of US oil and gas comes from the Gulf, and a rampaging Hurricane Dennis had forced about 42 per cent of the daily crude output and 27 per cent of natural gas production shut down over the last two days, say agency reports. Oil prices have breached $60 a barrel during this period.

The renowned hurricane forecaster, Dr William M. Gray, heads the TMP forecast team, which has predicted that the 2005 season will see as many as 15 `named' tropical storms and eight hurricanes, well above the long-term average of 9.6 storms and 5.9 hurricanes. In an update on May 31, the team had forecast that Tropical Storm Dennis would reach the Gulf of Mexico as a full-fledged hurricane.

Other vital weather numbers forecast for this season (with long-term average in brackets) are: Named storm days 75 (49.1); Hurricane days 45 (24.5); Intense hurricanes 4 (2.3); Intense hurricane days 11 (5.0) and Net tropical cyclone activity 170% (100 %).

"We foresee a well above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of major hurricane landfall is anticipated," the update said.

Yet, the year will likely not produce hurricane activity as severe as the extraordinary 2004 hurricane season. It's estimated that the four destructive hurricanes making landfall in the US last year - among them the monstrous Ivan - caused more than $40 billion in damage.

`Dennis' gathered strength in the Caribbean Sea and, in a matter of a few days, was upgraded to a destructive Category 4 hurricane, second highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A major hurricane or Category 3 or higher storm has winds between 111-155 mph and can cause extensive damage. A Category 5 storm, the worst possible, has winds greater than 155 mph and can cause catastrophic damage.

Tropical cyclones are named to provide ease of communication between forecasters and the general public regarding forecasts, watches, and warnings.

A storm is classified as a "tropical storm" and is named when it has winds of more than 39 mph. If the wind speed reaches 74 mph or greater the storm is classified a hurricane. Since the storms can often last a week or longer and that more than one can be occurring in the same basin at the same time, names can reduce the confusion on which storm is being described.

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