The Hindu Business Line : The not-so-happy harvests

TWO major events have shocked India and the world. After an unbearably long and hot summer, torrential rains flooded large parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. But more consternation was caused by the terrorist attacks on the Ayodhya temple complex and the London Underground.

Disturbing as these events are, there is something about them that is not generally recognised. Those who had the dubious distinction of having foreseen the incompetence of the governmental machinery in the field of meteorological forecasting and extension advice to agriculturists will have the satisfaction of being borne out by facts. Till the last week of June, it was parched land across the country. Those optimistic farmers who had carried out the first sowing of kharif as also those who preferred to wait for more definitive signs of monsoon were praying for at least one good shower.

The situation was so bad that the Prime Minister held an emergency meeting to check the preparedness of the governmental machinery to meet what appeared to be another year of severe drought and food shortage.

But the news of advancing rains in Kerala and western India — Karnataka and Maharashtra — gave some hope.

And by the time the first monsoons showers started in Mumbai, it was pouring in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh; whole of Gujarat was all but under water.

Till end-June, agricultural experts had been advising farmers to use seeds of short-duration crops in the expectation of a short kharif season. In the first week of July when most of Gujarat had turned into vast expanse of swirling, muddy water, no real advice could be given to the farmers. That was understandable.

From the first week of July, experts of the Indian Council of Agricultural research apparently advised farmers to be prepared for short and medium as also long-duration crops.

Now the government has substantially scaled down its estimates of kharif crops and yields. Apparently except for sugarcane, all crops will mark a reduction in acreage. All foodgrains — rice, wheat, and coarse cereals — and pulses will also have lower output. Even in the case of sugarcane where the acreage is expected to grow, the final output may be less than previous estimates. So much for the government's role in Indian agriculture. Now for the less camouflaged terrorists. Following 9/11, a minority of perspicacious observers had seen a link between Al Qaeda and the demonstrators at Seattle and Genoa.

Al Qaeda wanted to demonstrate its capability to strike at the western powers.

The Civil Organisations wanted to block all efforts at economic reforms and globalisation. Both had a common enemy. Both were desperately cornered and needed to make a demonstration that would make an impact. While Al Qaeda was pursued with determination by the anti-terrorist campaign of the US President, Mr George W. Bush, the Civil Organisations not only remained unfettered but, in fact, gained in prestige in many a developing country, including India.

The Civil Organisations had demonstrated in strength at Edinburgh. It turned out to be a sort of a diversionary tactic.

For, the general security in London had to be scaled down to reinforce the security in Scotland. Everybody is talking about the role of the Al Qaeda and the fundamentalists, but the unwitting hand of the Civil Organisations has gone unnoticed.

(The author, Founder of the Shetkari Sanghatana, is a Member of the Rajya Sabha. E-mail: sharad.mah@nic.in)

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