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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , July 18

THE country has entered a true `weak monsoon phase' with major rainfall activity expected to be confined to the North-East, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, areas close to the Himalayan foothills and South peninsular India.

This trend will hold for the next four days, according to the forecast issued by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. There is a possibility that monsoon could revive around Sunday.

An upper air cyclonic circulation that lay over north interior Karnataka and neighbourhood on Monday is expected to move towards northwest.

Under its influence, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal and south interior Karnataka and isolated over the rest parts of the peninsula over a period of the next 2-3 days. The other upper air cyclonic circulation that was positioned over west Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood is expected to weaken and become insignificant during the next 24-48 hours.

On Monday, the axis of the monsoon trough passed through Ganganagar, Delhi, Lucknow and Gaya through Tezpur in Assam. The western tip of the trough is likely to shift towards the foothills.

Scattered to fairly widespread or widespread rainfall has been forecast for Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, north Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu during the next 3-4 days.

Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh will receive isolated to scattered rainfall during the next 48 hours.

Scattered rainfall is also expected over east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram.

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