The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon revives, promises an encore in the North

THE southwest monsoon is in a revival phase, with the low-pressure area over the North Bay of Bengal having already become well marked and expected to intensify further into a monsoon depression over the next two days.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) had rightly called the formation of the low five days in advance for a second time during the ongoing season.

From all indications, it would appear that the system will move in a west-northwesterly direction as a depression but at a measured pace only. This is also the path traversed by the first `low' of the season that worked in tandem with a prevailing mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation (MTC) over Gujarat to trigger floods in that State and large parts of the northwest.

A play-out of the scenario is being envisioned as the week progresses, with the formation of another MTC being forecast over the northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining regions of Saurashtra and Kutch by Thursday next. This, the NCMRWF said, will lead to a spurt in rainfall activity over north Konkan and adjoining areas. Rain-scarce Marathwada, Vidarbha and Telengana expect themselves to be brought under the footprint of the system.

In its update on Sunday, the NCMRWF said the monsoonal low-pressure over North Bay of Bengal off Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa coast has further intensified in to a well-marked low, bringing the monsoon trough to its normal position. Under the influence of its circulation features and orientation, most parts of central India and peninsular India are likely to experience enhanced rainfall activity during the coming 4-5 days.

In the north and the northwest, scattered rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal during next 3-4 days. In the remaining sectors of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh, isolated showers are likely.

Towards the east the northeast, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rain spells is likely over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal during the next 4-5 days. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and the Northeastern States during the next three days.

In central India, the revival of monsoon will bring fairly widespread rainfall over parts of Chattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh during the next four days. Vidarbha and West Madhya Pradesh may experience scattered rainfall activity.

In the peninsula, widespread rainfall activity is likely over coastal Karnataka, south interior Karnataka and Telangana while it will be fairly widespread over Kerala and north Interior Karnataka during the next three days. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema during the next five days.

Towards the west, scattered rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada during the next two days. This is likely to get enhanced in to a fairly widespread rainfall activity starting from Thursday onwards under the influence of the MTC expected to form by that time. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over north Gujarat and Rajasthan during the next three days.

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