The Hindu Business Line : Fresh `low' over Bay likely to extend rain cover to entire country

The monsoon flow continues to be very strong, and will aid the intensification of this system into a depression and expedite its northward progression.

Thiruvananthapuram , July 28

A FRESH `low' that has evolved over northwest Bay of Bengal is promising to combine with the incumbent system over northwest Madhya Pradesh to further rev up and extend the rain activity to almost the whole of the country.

The entire peninsula and central, northwest and northeast India will be brought under a busy spell with the fresh system expectedly intensifying into a depression pretty soon and charting a north-northwest course, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

It may be recalled that the existing system also had followed a west-northwestward course from the Bay to start with, but had entered coastal Andhra Pradesh and then rolled westwards into Madhya Pradesh. The formation of the fresh system is a little northwestward in the Bay and its orientation will help the cause of the spatial distribution of rain.

More than 10 days have elapsed since the eastern parts of the country received some precipitation. Orissa, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will be among the immediate beneficiaries from the fresh `low'.

The monsoon flow continues to be very strong, and will aid the intensification of this system into a depression and expedite its northward progression. Dr Gupta ruled out the possibility of cloudbursts occurring along the Konkan since the severe convective activity along the coast has dissipated and the rainfall has become more widespread in north Konkan and the Gujarat region.

The mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation has also failed to evolve to the full scale, although the offshore trough continued to persist.

In its update for the next five days, the NCMRWF said the well-marked low-pressure area over east Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood had weakened into a low-pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh. It is likely to further move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The cyclonic circulation over west Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan is likely persist for another two days and may become insignificant thereafter. The offshore trough running from Konkan to Karnataka is likely to persist for next 2-3 days.

The ongoing widespread rainfall activity over north Konkan and Gujarat region is likely to continue during the next 2-3 days and reduce thereafter to some extent. In the north and the northwest, isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over the plains. The hilly regions, especially Uttaranchal and Himachal Pradesh, can expect to get scattered to fairly widespread rains during this period.

Towards the east and the northeast, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal are likely to receive widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rains during next 3-4 days. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is also likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and the Northeastern States during next three days.

In central India, with the possible west-northwestward movement of the fresh `low', fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy showers are also likely over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during the next 2-3 days.

In the south, fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely to continue over coastal Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 4-5 days. South interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala are likely to experience scattered rainfall during the period. Isolated rains are likely over Tamil Nadu also.

Towards the west, widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy rains is expected over Konkan and Goa, the Gujarat region and southeast Rajasthan during the next 2-3 days. The activity may reduce thereafter to some extent. Scattered rainfall is also likely over remaining parts of Rajasthan during next 2-3 days.

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