The Hindu Business Line : Nuclear puzzle

THE nuclear deal between India and the US contained in the joint statement signed by the Indian Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh and the US President, Mr George W. Bush, has been hailed as a spectacular achievement by official quarters as also the media in India. It has been claimed that this is a thumping recognition of India as a nuclear power, though commentaries from the US have pooh-poohed it as an exaggerated notion.

The real puzzle is not about these frills, but about India binding itself to the monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the operation of its scheme of safeguards covering the entire spectrum of India's civilian nuclear facilities and the unconditional acceptance of the supervisory role of the 44-nation Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG).

The IAEA will go into facility-specific details in exercising its watch, while the NSG will insist on its "full-scope" prescriptions which may intrude into policy-making areas. The two agencies between themselves have enough clout to steer India's nuclear options to suit the interests of major powers and say "Or, else!"

Indeed, Dr Singh's agreeing to delimiting India's nuclear set-up into separate civil and military compartments is of questionable merit. Hitherto the criss-crossing nature of both had kept the distinction blurred and friends and foes among outsiders guessing. The demarcation will expose the scope and extent of both activities, indicating clearly where one ends and the other begins, and robbing both of the flexibility that they enjoyed so far.

Yet another puzzle is what made India go to such great lengths to placate the US when all it had to gain in return was an additional 16,000 megawatts or so in nuclear generation by 2020. By then, India's total installed capacity would be around 150,000 MWs, compared to which the nuclear addition would be a pittance.

More than thrice that paltry quantum could have been got at a lower tariff than nuclear power from conservation, co-generation, coal gasification, hydropower, non-conventional sources, natural gas and so on by revamping the energy policy and effectively executing it. The biggest puzzle of all is why Dr Manmohan Singh allowed himself to be hustled into the deal despite all these considerations.

B. S. Raghavan

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