The Hindu Business Line : Running against time at the WTO

THERE IS now little doubt that the negotiations on the Doha Round are in deep trouble. At a mini-Ministerial at end January, the end of July was set as the cut-off point by when it was expected that the kernel (labelled "first approximations") of a successful Hong Kong ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation would have been got ready. That deadline has come and gone with the preparations for a successful December meeting not just incomplete but way off the mark in terms of the pre-determined schedule, with the result that there is now serious cause for concern about the fate not only of the Hong Kong meeting itself but of the Doha Round itself.

The outgoing WTO Director-General, Mr Supachai Panitchpadki, has himself given us a comprehensive round-up of what is at stake in the ongoing negotiations and what is yet to be achieved in the three months that effectively remains before the Hong Kong meeting begins in early December. Based on his interpretation of the unfolding events, it seems that some of the major players are indulging in the game of brinksmanship perhaps in the hope that, at the last moment, they will have their way on points they consider important to themselves. The basis of this hope may be that the majority of the other members (including most of the developing world) would recoil at the prospect of the Hong Kong meeting turning out to a failure, which in turn would have a major adverse impact on the prospects of the Doha Round itself.

This is a view which the WTO chief also subscribes to, as is clear from the following excerpt from his July 28 report as chairman of the Trade Negotiations Committee (TNC): "There is no mystery to the substantive problems in these negotiations. The technical issues have been exhaustively explored, the political choices have been identified and narrowed down. However, being understood apparently does not make them easier to resolve.

I am seriously concerned that we are still seeing a tendency towards brinkmanship among negotiators who should know better. Recent experience, most painfully at Cancún, has taught us that a multilateral deal in today's WTO cannot be pushed through by a few members. This lesson needs to be fully absorbed and acted upon". Effectively, this means that there should be a change in basic attitude of a handful of influential members if the fate of the Doha Round is to be turned around and made happier.

As Mr Panitchpadki said on July 8 in Geneva: "So we need to change gear in the negotiations, but even more to change our mindset and our approach. The time is long overdue to pass from identifying to solving problems; from the technical to the political level; and from generalities to specifics. Bearing in mind the principle of the Single Undertaking, where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, negotiators need to show greater willingness to reach out to each other's needs. We need to apply less creative energy to deciding whose fault everything is and more to finding solutions that everyone can share in".

This, clearly, is an ambitious target to attain given the entrenched positions key member-countries have on fundamental points. One of these is the Single Undertaking principle, which implies that progress must be made in all aspects of the negotiations if the latter are to succeed. Washington, however, appears to hold a different view on the subject. Reports indicate that, at an early-February meeting of the TNC, the Brazilian representative maintained that while modalities would have to be hammered out by December in Agriculture and Non-Agriculture Market Access (NAMA), the "July draft" (which now has not materialised) "must be balanced", reflecting the fact that there was progress in other areas of the negotiations as well. The US official, on the other hand, said that "draft, bracketed texts...or guidance needed to negotiate clarification and improvements to existing agreements" would suffice for the other areas, "including services, special and differential treatment for developing countries, and trade facilitation".

More fundamentally, he added: "We should not expect that each negotiation will move in lock step with the others. We all have to avoid the temptation to suggest that movement in one area for now isn't possible because we haven't seen enough in some other area. Each negotiation will have its own rhythm". Of some interest here is the comment of the EU representative present at the TNC meeting, who called for intensified work in all sectors, adding: "the linking up of the various elements of the package will be crucial".

The basic question is whether three months will be enough for the job. If the list of subjects provided by Mr Panitchpadki — those under intense negotiations — is any indication, the road ahead is not only continuously uphill but is also tricky and contorted. The point is that, as he has said, too often the discussions are beating around "the margins of strongly-held positions which show few signs of softening", adding, "In previous years it could have been said that we had not yet really begun to negotiate. This has changed for the better since 2004, but we have not yet reached the level of negotiation at which the convergence that opens up the concluding phase can be reached".

Within the short span a lot will have to be achieved. Clearly, a last effort is on to save the Doha Round from being pushed into the shadows which, among other things, is certain to have a serious impact on the continuing efforts to liberalise international trade. Emerging economies such as India, China and Brazil have a lot to gain if a WTO-policed world trade framework continues to be in place.

The July-end "first approximations" have not materialised. The sights are now being set on a mid-October "checkpoint" for a review of the progress made during the preceding six weeks. The hope is that the last-ditch effort will succeed. But hope must be based on substance, which in turn would depend on a change of heart and strategy in the capitals of the developed world. Only time will tell whether such a change does indeed occur.

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