The Hindu Business Line : Heavy rain over west coast, Gujarat for two more days

THERE will be little respite for the rain-battered regions of Gujarat, north Konkan, and Goa for the next 48 hours, as the weakening `deep depression' over Central India will take that much time to move over and fizzle out.

Compounding the situation further is the strong monsoon flow across peninsular India, due to which the offshore trough continues to be markedly present along the Konkan and Goa coast up to Kerala.

With no let-up seen in the seasonal flows for another 3-4 days, the widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to continue along the coast, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Speaking to Business Line, he said that Sunday's deep depression managed to cover larger than expected ground to move out from the overnight perch over Jharsuguda in Orissa to settle as a well-marked `low' over Sagar in Madhya Pradesh.

This is likely to weaken further, before petering out completely in a direction further to the North-West in two days.

But it will have thrown down a curtain of rain along the way, with Central and North peninsular India, Gujarat, north Konkan, and Goa bearing much of the brunt.

There will be a slight weakening of the rain activity thereafter, which will pick up steam with the formation of the new low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal now advanced by a day to Friday (August 5).

The NCMRWF had on Sunday said that the new `low' was expected to take shape on Saturday. The advancement is prompted by the fast pace with which the existing system over Sagar is preparing to leave the mainland.

An incumbent system over the mainland normally repels the formation and onward progress of an anticipated new system over the Bay.

The rainfall activity over Eastern regions such as Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal may reduce but pick up once again after the formation of the fresh low-pressure area by Friday.

Meanwhile, some models are suggesting the formation of a typhoon over the warm ocean waters of North-West Pacific around the time the `low' takes shape in the Bay.

The Pacific system is tipped to traverse the same course as Typhoon Haitang did some time back and make a landfall over the South-East coast of China. But the monsoon flows would be strong enough and insulated from any adverse effect of the brewing typhoon, Dr Gupta said.

In its forecast for the next five days, the NCMRWF has said that scattered rainfall is likely over the North and the North-Western region during the next 3-4 days.

In the East and the North-East, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely.

Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand are likely to receive widespread rains from Friday onwards.

In central India, the West to North-Westward movement of the well-marked `low' over central Madhya Pradesh is likely to produce fairly widespread rainfall over Chhattisgarh, east and west Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha during the next 3-4 days.

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