The Hindu Business Line : `Weak monsoon' phase likely from next week

THE southwest monsoon is expected to go into a `weak phase' after the ongoing wet session in the north and the northwest draws to a close early next week.

A similar lull phase that resembled a `break monsoon', without being officially classified as one, had come about during the third week of the last month.

Speaking to Business Line, Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, said the second weak phase could set in as early as Monday (August 8).

The core rainfall activity will then shift from north peninsular and central India to the eastern parts of the country, especially Bihar and the northeastern States.

`Low' ceding place: The pointer to this likely scenario is evidenced in the further weakening of Thursday's well-marked low-pressure area over Jharkhand and adjoining north interior Orissa into a `low'.

The system remained more or less stationary in that position on Friday. The prevailing circulation in the northwest in the form of a western disturbance is gradually getting the upper hand.

The `low' is now expected to move slowly in a north-northwestward direction during the next two to three days. The possible interaction between this monsoonal system and the eastward moving western disturbance over the Gangetic plains may cause fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy fall over north, northwest India and parts central India.

Wet session in north: Areas standing to gain from the resulting rainfall activity for the next two-three days are Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana (including Delhi), western parts of Bihar, north Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

While rainfall in parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana is likely to reduce subsequently, extended wet session for a further two to three days is indicated for the rest of the areas.

On Friday, the synoptic circulation system associated with the `low' caused moderate to heavy rainfall over north Orissa, Chhattisgarh and adjoining Jharkhand. The western disturbance caused fairly widespread rainfall activity over Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana (including Delhi) and Uttaranchal.

Strong on west coast: The strong monsoon flow across the peninsula resulted in widespread rainfall activity over Konkan and Goa, Vidarbha, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The flow is expected to remain strong over the coming four to five days and hence fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls is likely for Konkan and Goa, Karnataka, north Kerala, parts of Marathwada, Vidarbha and Telangana.

In the east and northeast, Orissa, Jharkhand and West Bengal are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls during the next two to three days.

Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and scattered to fairly widespread over the northeastern States in four to five days.

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