The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon extends `above normal' performance into early August

THE southwest monsoon has extended its `above par' performance into August with the all-India area-weighted rainfall during the season up till August 3 being surplus by 5 per cent.

According to an update by the India Meteorological Department, actual rainfall realised till that date was 506.4 mm against a normal of 484.4 mm.

Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country, as many as 10 recorded `excess' rainfall, while 21 others had `normal' rainfall.

Only five - all in the north and the northeast - had deficient rainfall, but the disturbing feature is that four of them have remained under the `deficient' category right through the season (nine weeks in all). These are Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam-Meghalaya and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura. The sole exception to this trend is Arunachal Pradesh.

Down, week-on-week: Detailed figures provided by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the situation had deteriorated week-on-week in Bihar (-21 per cent on July 27 to -37 per cent as on August 3), Jharkhand (-33 to -40) and Arunachal Pradesh (-22 to -26). It was unchanged in Assam-Meghalaya (-29) and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (-44).

A zone-wise analysis of rainfall revealed that it was excess in three areas - 6 per cent in the Northwest, 24 per cent in Central India and 14 per cent in Peninsular India. There was a deficit in the North-East by 29 per cent.

Revival indicated: In its update and forecast for the next five days, NCMRWF said Sunday's upper air cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh and the adjoining north-eastern States in India is still persisting with an extension rising up to 0.9 mm above sea level.

This has prompted the formation of a fresh upper air cyclonic circulation that lay over northwest Bay of Bengal off the Orissa-West Bengal coast 4.5 km to 6 km above sea level. This in turn is expected to develop into a low-pressure by Wednesday, helped in by the moisture feed from the easterlies from northwest Bay of Bengal.

Trough near foothills: The monsoon trough moved slightly to the north of its normal position and lay close to the foothills of the Himalayas on Monday. The ongoing rainfall activity is likely to continue over the north-eastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim and Orissa over the next two days.

The prevailing western disturbance has moved north north-eastward as expected. Hence, rainfall activity is likely to drop off from the plains of Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh during the next two to three days.

Subdued rainfall would be the predominant feature in the interior parts of peninsular India and adjoining central India as well.

The offshore trough on the west coast now runs from south Konkan to north Kerala coast and is likely to cause moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Konkan and Goa and coastal Karnataka during the next two days.

The activity may get a further boost from Wednesday with the formation of the `low' over Orissa and its neighbourhood.

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