The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon revival subdued as `weak phase' continues

According to a weather update and forecast for the next five days, put out by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), this phase will end with the expected formation of a low-level cyclonic circulation over the North Bay of Bengal by the end of this week.

Earlier it was forecast that the preparatory `low' would take shape by Wednesday itself.

The revival of the monsoon flow is now expected to lack much of the punch that marked earlier occasions this season, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF. In any case, States such as Orissa, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh stand to benefit immediately.

Dr Gupta told Business Line that a number of models suggest that the monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal would not penetrate into northwest India this time round. The best they could manage would be east Uttar Pradesh.

An NCMRWF update said that Tuesday's upper air cyclonic circulation positioned over the Northeastern states persisted up to a height of 3.1 km above sea level. The upper air cyclonic circulation packing at 4.5-5.8 km above sea level over northwest Bay of Bengal off the Orissa-West Bengal coast also persisted.

The axis of the monsoon trough at sea level continues to align close to the foothills of the Himalayas, which is indicative of the weak phase of the monsoon.

Under this scenario, fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places over the Northeastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar during the next 2-3 days. This is expected to improve the overall prospects in the Northeastern States and Bihar, where monsoon performance has been below par right through the season.

In the region-wise forecasts, the centre said isolated rainfall activity is likely over the hilly regions of northwest India during the period. Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal are expected to receive isolated rains.

In the south, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall. The rest of the region is likely to receive isolated rains during this period.

Towards the west, Konkan and Goa and Madhya Maharashtra may receive scattered to fairly widespread rains during the next 2-3 days. Rest of the region is likely to receive isolated to scattered rains during this period.

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