The Hindu Business Line : Subdued monsoon revival forecast

INDICATIONS are that the cyclonic circulation over North Bay of Bengal could upgrade itself to a `low level cyclonic circulation' at best, leading to a less-than-robust revival of monsoon flows by Sunday.

There are even some models that suggest deferment of the revival to a later date, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

He told Business Line that there have been occasions when the weak phase (break monsoon, though not officially called one) has prolonged for up to two weeks. By contrast, it's only five days since the monsoon has lapsed into a lull and the second lapse was happenstance.

By coincidence, a tropical storm (not `named' as on late Thursday) has been located in the western Pacific, some 360 nautical miles east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. The tropical storm will continue tracking a north westward course, which will meander through the Taiwan Straits and into China. This could prove prejudicial to the formation of supportive circulations over the Indian Ocean, which could trigger a full-scale revival of the monsoon.

According to the NCMRWF, the upper air cyclonic circulation over the north eastern States persisted on Thursday, extending up to 3.1 km above sea level. The other circulation of 4.5-5.8 km above sea level and located over the northwest Bay of Bengal (off the Orissa-West Bengal coast) also persisted.

The axis of the monsoon trough at sea level continues to lie close to the foothills of the Himalayas. Under this scenario, fairly widespread rainfall (both heavy and very heavy falls) are likely at a few places over the north-eastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 2-3 days.

Rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued over the remaining parts of the country. The expected low-key revival of the monsoon by Sunday is expected to bring enhanced rainfall to many parts of Central India, mainly Orissa, Jharkhand, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Isolated rainfall activity is likely over the hilly region of northwest India during next two days. Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal are expected to receive isolated rains during the period.

In the south, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall activity during next 2-3 days. Coastal Andhra Pradesh may receive scattered to fairly widespread rains. The rest of the region is likely to receive isolated rain during this period. Towards the west, Konkan belt, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra may receive scattered to fairly widespread rains.

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