The Hindu Business Line : Weak monsoon revival belies expectations

Significantly, the seasonal weather system is feared to go into another weak phase from August 22 (Monday next), says Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Early indications suggest that the frequent and sustained weak/break phases this month could make a mockery of the `good monsoon' experienced during the previous month.

Disclosing this to Business Line, Dr Gupta said the weak/break phase set in by August 7 has held strong ever since. A feeble revival is now indicated, only to pave the way for the next weak phase a week hence.

This could lead to some problems managing the crops in central north peninsular and northwest India.

These areas could be subjected to some moisture stress, although resident moisture levels from excess July rainfall would be sufficient to save the crops from irreparable damage.

He said contrary to expectations, the upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay traced last week failed to descend to lower levels and set up the classical `low' required to trigger the revival.

It has resolutely maintained its perch in the heights, managing to cross the coast and herald some rainfall activity in central and north peninsular India.

It was located over north Orissa and adjoining Jharkhand on Monday, but had since rolled over to Jharkhand and adjoining Chhattisgarh.

The system is likely to move first in a west-northwesterly direction and north-northwest later to set up an interaction with an incoming western disturbance.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is indicated over central India and parts of north peninsular India during the next 2-3 days.

After this, the weak phase will set in, and core rainfall activity will shift to the east and the northeast. North Tamil Nadu can also look forward to receiving some badly needed rainfall. But this would hardly compensate the likely overall rainfall deficit for the whole country.

Monsoon flows on either side of the peninsula have weakened over the last two weeks. Even the stream that feeds the South China Sea to the east-northeast also has waned. There is no sure sign yet of a full-fledged revival any time soon, although officially the season will last for another 45 more days.

Model prediction suggests that the interaction between the monsoon system and the western disturbance may continue for another 48 hours and cause scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and west Uttar Pradesh.

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