The Hindu Business Line : `We have lost the political plot' — Mr Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Alternatives, Colombo

Opinion - Interview

`We have lost the political plot' — Mr Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Alternatives, Colombo

Rasheeda Bhagat

recently in Colombo

IN SRI LANKA, there is no alternative for any government but to engage with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the peace process and work towards a final settlement. Till then, the LTTE will continue to build its military muscle as "to give up arms would be to lose its only source of leverage," says Mr Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, Colombo, in an interview to Business Line.

Excerpts from the interview: Where does the assassination of Lakshman Kadirgamar leave the peace process?

Before the assassination, the peace process was in limbo and under constant challenge. This tragedy poses a greater challenge to the peace process and there is the danger of it being put on the backburner. He was a highly respected politician and, now, many people will say the LTTE is giving a clear signal that it is not really interested in peace.

Already, there are problems pertaining to killings, and child conscription continues. This is the closest we have come to hostilities since the ceasefire was signed in 2002 and many Colombo newspapers were speculating even before Kadirgamar's assassination that the LTTE is preparing for UDI (unilateral declaration of independence).

What do you think?

That may be an exaggeration but, it does point to a couple of things. First, that after three years of ceasefire, the LTTE does not control a situation on the ground as it did before. Latent tensions have been manifested and the best example is the Karuna factor; Karuna would not have happened if there was no ceasefire. Also, after three years of no fighting, no peace and yet no war, it is difficult for a politico-military organisation to be able to maintain the same kind of tight discipline and control.

The LTTE has a dilemma; it has to deliver on the ground to the people; after all, it did sign the ceasefire agreement and needs to show some tangible dividend. It has not been able to get a Post Tsunami Operations Management Structure (PTOMS) — that was suspended by the Supreme court — agreement implemented as yet. An organisation like that has always resorted to hostilities as a way of unifying people. But the danger of going back to hostilities is to lose all the capital it may have built up in terms of international acceptance and legitimacy over three years. So, in a sense, one can say it is caught in some sort of a peace trap.

On to the coming elections... In your opinion, which of the two major parties — Ranil Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP) or Chandrika Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) — would be beneficial to Sri Lanka in the long run?

We had a UNF government from end-2001 to 2004 April and a United People's Freedom Alliance outfit (UPFA) that lasted for a year. The UNF government was able to get the ceasefire going, and institute economic reforms which were unpopular in some quarters as they required a great deal of sacrifice. The ideological perspective was very much the Washington Consensus of the World Bank and the IMF. But that government did have a vision in terms of where economic development ought to be directed and where the country should head. It was very keen to get the war out of the way, and proceed with economic development in accordance with its ideological perspective.

The UPFA government capitalised on what seemed populist and irresponsible insofar as it put forth arguments about the UNF surrendering to the LTTE in the context of the ceasefire. But once it came into office, it continued the same policy. It had no option and saw the wisdom of those policies.

As for the economy, there is more in common between the SLFP and the UNP than there ever will be between either of those parties and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). So it was an alliance based only on the need to capture power.

And that government is in limbo, nothing is happening and everything seems to be obscured by this whole question of what is Her Excellency's political future and questions such as will she hand over her party to another dynasty headed by the Prime Minister (Mr Mahindra Rajapakse, the SLFP's candidate as President)? Is she going to continue in office? Can she change the Constitution? So we've lost a sense of perspective; quite simply, we have lost the plot.

And where does the JVP stand?

The JVP, as a party, has more coherence in terms of its position. Nevertheless, it has an almost pre-historic attitude towards the economy, favouring a Cuban and North Korean kind of outlook and, vis-à-vis the peace process, it does not see negotiations with the LTTE as something that one ought to engage in. Its policies are destructive and it is feeding on the failure of the two main parties.

Coming to Ms Chandrika's political future, could it work like a Sonia-Manmohan arrangement where without heading the government she wields real power? Do you think she'll be able to pull that off with Mr Rajapakse?

The analogy with Sonia Gandhi is superficial as the situation here is different. She could conceivably do that, but if she did she would definitely cripple and undermine Mr Rajpakse's candidacy. Some are concerned about exactly what you're saying; others — hard-core Chandrika supporters — feel that it is the best thing that could happen and many are waiting for a clarification on his candidacy and where he stands on the peace process and the economy. As for the President's political future, some argue she is banking on a change in the Constitution, or being the Leader of the Opposition or coming back as Prime Minister.

Do you think she would do that... as Prime Minister?

Not under a Rajpakse presidency. What she would do is look forward conceivably to becoming the prime minister if we abolish the executive presidency. But, as party leader, if she moves to determine what the party's political platform is going to be, what the profile of Mr Rajpakse's candidacy would be, she is going to destroy his candidacy. And some people, in very Machiavellian terms, argue, that this is exactly what she wants to do.

Do you accept this argument?

It is a weighty decision that she has to take in that if she relinquishes control over the party... after all, it is the party of her parents, it has never really had leadership from outside the family and, because of its semi-feudal orientation, it probably gets attracted to dynasties of one kind or the another. And I am sure that Mr Rajapakse will make sure that his family then takes stranglehold over the leadership of the party because his heritage within the SLFP is as old as the Bandaranaike family's!

How is life in the North and East? Have you gone there recently?

No, not recently, but reports suggest there are tensions in terms of the law and order situation and, in the East, killings continue on a daily basis; of the LTTE or Karuna cadres or the army intelligence people. So tit-for-tat or political assassinations continue as also child recruitment. The ground situation in terms of human security continues to be bad.

In economic terms, have people's lives improved? Are there more job opportunities, better education or health-care facilities?

Nowhere near enough. If you take the schools and the recruitment of teachers, it is woefully inadequate.

How do you see the future panning out?

Well, I can't see the future being in any way promising until and unless we surmount that hurdle... where the peace process has stalled and work out institutional arrangements between the government and the LTTE.

Will the LTTE ever give up arms?

It will not until a final settlement is agreed upon and even then it would want to see that it is operational. Of course, there are those who would say: ``Ah, we told you so, they'll never give up arms.'' But we have to recognise one simple point that the history of the relationship has been such that agreements signed between leaderships have never been properly implemented. And let's face the hard, brutal reality. The strength of the LTTE comes from its military muscle. So to give up arms would be to lose its only source of leverage and so, perhaps like the IRA, this might take some time.

Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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