The Hindu Business Line : El Nino unlikely to occur till March

EL Nino, a phenomenon that leads to rise in the Pacific Ocean temperature and consequent dry weather and drought, is unlikely to occur at least until March next.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Southern Oscillation Index, which scientists studying weather patterns use to monitor El Nino development, has remained positive for the last two months.

El Nino is associated with sustained negative values of this index and, therefore, its formation is unlikely this year.

The bureau also quoted a host of international forecasting models that favoured continuation of the neutral conditions for El Nino. While eight models see the condition continuing till December, seven models foresee this to extending to March. One model sees El Nino occurring before March.

The latest development comes after the bureau said in June that some (El Nino) indicators remained near the threshold levels. Initially, indications were that a weak El Nino could occur as the Pacific Ocean's temperature rose in February. However, since May the fears of such occurrence have receded.

No direct relations have been drawn between the Indian weather pattern and El Nino. But certain developments with regard to monsoon have been related to the warm water effect.

For example, El Nino had occurred in 1982 and 1987 and it led to deficient rainfall in India. Similarly, during La Nina (which leads to heavy rainfall) in 1983 and 1988, the country witnessed excessive rainfall and floods.

However, in 1997, the monsoon was better than usual, with 102 per cent recorded rainfall but the following year the country witnessed drought. From 2002, El Nino's effects have been weak or moderate over the country.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US has also said that the El Nino neutral conditions would last 3-6 months with the sea surface temperatures declining in July.

Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department said that 30 of the 36 sub-divisions in the country have received excess or normal rainfall this year since monsoon hit the Kerala coast in June. Rainfall in the others has been either scanty or deficient.

Up to August 10, the country had received an average weighted rainfall of 558.1 mm against the normal 558.5 mm. An interesting development has been excess rainfall in the Marathwada region, which had been rain-deficient until the second half of July.

Besides Marathwada, Karnataka, Telangana, eastern Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat have received excess rainfall.

On the other hand, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, and Jharkhand have received scanty or deficiency rainfall.

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