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Saturday, Aug 20, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Narrow movement

K. Premkumar

MARKET witnessed range-bound movement during Friday's market activity. However, neither side could capitalise on the day's movement. The Friday's market movement resulted in the sentiment reading turning neutral. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to turn the sentiment reading bearish. On the contrary, bulls have the chance to turn the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: Friday's market opened with a bullish note and further moved up by another 20 points in the initial day's trading. However, bulls could not sustain their momentum and gave way for bears to recover their early losses in the later part of the day. The August contract moved within a band of 28 points. It closed around the same level as Thursday's close.

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The exit level for the August contract remains around the same level with a risk of around seven points. The selling level has been moved closer. Bear domination on Monday is likely to reverse the prevailing position in the August contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the tradable list had few changes. ACC, BHEL and ONGC gained entry with the exit of Bank of India, BOB and Tata Motors. The ranking of the list had total revamp. Reliance Industries, Tata Steel and VSNL are the top three traded counters in the list.

All the positions in the list are likely to be under threat for Monday. Bears are likely to have opportunities in six counters. Bullish opportunities exist in three counters. Best among the above is likely to be selling in Reliance Industries. This counter is in uptrend. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to reverse the prevailing uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable counters remains unchanged. SAIL and Tata Steel interchanged their rankings. The lone downtrend counter Tata Steel is likely to be under threat for Monday's trading. The uptrend in ONGC and VSNL are also likely to be terminated. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys and SBI. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in almost nine counters in the list. The best bet for Monday's trading is likely to be selling in Satyam. This counter is in sideways mode. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to initiate fresh downtrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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