The Hindu Business Line : Weak monsoon condition not yet established

THE untimely upper air circulation over central Uttar Pradesh may have slightly reduced the gravity of the current weak phase of the monsoon on the first two days but the system has become less marked during the past 24 hours.

Rogue systems such as this are bound to form during the transition phase, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

True weak monsoon conditions should establish themselves sooner than later, especially with the monsoon flows having been reduced to a diffused stream over the past few days.

Dr Gupta told Business Line that instead `continental flows' (generated over land) have been dominating the monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal in the 1.5-3 km altitude over the past few days. This is likely to hold at least for the next 4-5 days helping reinforce weak monsoon conditions.

The circulation over Uttar Pradesh has been bringing unexpected rains to central India in east and north Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.

During the weak monsoon phase, rainfall activity is typically concentrated to the Northeast and parts of the hilly regions of the north.

On Monday, fairly widespread rain with isolated heavy rainfall occurred over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. A second upper air cyclonic circulation over Bihar and neighbourhood persisted, extending up to mid-tropospheric levels.

This has been bringing heavy rains to Nepal also. Some of the rivers that flow across the border into Bihar are in spate, Dr Gupta said.

The axis of monsoon trough on Monday passed through Ferozepur, Ambala, Bareilly, Varanasi, Gaya, Kharagpur and thence east-southeast into northeast Bay of Bengal. Under this scenario, enhanced rainfall activity is likely to continue over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, north Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh during the next 2-3 days.

Weather update and forecast for the next 4-5 days by the NCMRWF said isolated rains are expected over the north and the northwest during the period

In central India, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy showers. Vidarbha and west Madhya Pradesh are likely to receive scattered rains.

Towards the South, scattered rainfall is expected over Karnataka, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Isolated showers are expected over the rest of the areas in the region.

In the west, Konkan and Goa and Madhya Maharashtra are likely to receive scattered rains during the next 3-4 days. Isolated to scattered rainfall is expected over the rest of the regions outside west Rajasthan and Saurashtra and Kutch.

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