The Hindu Business Line : Isolated rain forecast for North, Northwest

THE western end of the monsoon trough continued to track an alignment along the Himalayan foothills confining the scope of rainfall to isolated places in the entire north and northwest over the next 4-5 days.

A weather update by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the eastern end of the trough has moved northwards relative to its position on Tuesday. It now passes through Bahraich, Patna, Berhampore and then southeastwards into the northeast Bay of Bengal.

Tuesday's upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood extending up to mid-tropospheric levels has shifted to sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and adjoining Bihar.

Under this scenario, the enhanced rainfall activity over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar is likely to continue for another 2-3 days while it may get reduced over east Uttar Pradesh after 24 hours.

Tuesday's upper air cyclonic circulation over Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala extending up to mid-tropospheric levels and tilting southwestwards with height has moved westwards. It now lies over Lakshadweep, rising between 3.1 and 4.5 km above sea level.

Meanwhile, the NCMRWF maintained its outlook for a new cyclonic circulation expected to form over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal by Friday. Not expected to descend down to form a `low', this circulation may bring about a reduction in rainfall over east Uttar Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim even as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh will experience a corresponding rise in precipitation.

During the past 24 hours, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rain has occurred over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar to the exclusion of the North and the Northwest.

In its forecast for the next 4-5 days, the NCMRWF said the fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy showers is likely to continue over east Uttar Pradesh over the next 24 hours. Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal, Jharkhand and the Northeastern States will come in form for extended wet session over the next 2-3 days. Subsequently, rainfall activity is expected to enhance over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.

In central India, scattered rainfall activity is likely over the entire region except Chhattisgarh where fairly widespread rains are expected during the next 2-3 days. In the South, isolated to scattered rainfall is expected over the region during next two days. Subsequently, rainfall activity may increase over coastal Karnataka and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Towards the West, Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra are likely to receive scattered rains for the next two days. Following this, Konkan and Goa will get fairly widespread rainfall activity. Isolated to scattered rainfall is expected over the rest of the regions outside West Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch where mainly dry weather may prevail.

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