The Hindu Business Line : Experts fear monsoon running into deficit

CLIMATE experts have aired apprehensions that this year's monsoon could be heading for a deficit, assuming no dramatic reversal in prevailing as well as predicted weather during the remainder of the season.

Speaking to Business Line on condition of anonymity, they said best-case scenario projections suggest a deficit of 10 per cent by September 30 when the season draws to a close. They did not see any signs of a `big turnaround' in weather warranting drastic changes in their prognosis.

The projections were based on rainfall deficits already reported from different met subdivisions, trend in ongoing rainfall, impending withdrawal of monsoon from extreme Rajasthan and precipitation expected of a feeble monsoon pulse breaking in from the South.

Weak revival seen: This comes on top of a forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) that spoke about a weak revival of monsoon around Thursday (September 4) from the southern peninsula. Model predictions indicate the establishment of precursory east-west wind shear zone at 3.1 km above mean sea level by that time.

The shear zone could progressively shift northward causing rainfall to spread up to central India, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF. And that could be the farthest it can get, he said. . The predominant anti-cyclone in the northwest does not brook the development of rain-bearing systems anywhere near.

This, according to Dr Gupta, could mean that the northwest is also bracing for withdrawal of monsoon from the region. Withdrawal from the contiguous extreme west Rajasthan has already been factored in.

In its weather update on Thursday, the NCMRWF said the eastern end of the monsoon trough has started showing signs of reverting back to North Bay of Bengal. This can only lead to the `shutting out' of whatever nominal rainfall occurring in the deficit-running Northeastern States.

But this does not anymore worry weathermen who are more concerned about the extent to which the reviving monsoon would be able to penetrate central India.

Soya in bad shape: The issue has acquired further urgency in the wake of reports that standing soya crop in west Madhya Pradesh is in real danger of withering. Farmers have frantically been approaching the Met department for information on likely rainfall for the region. They have expressed fears that the crop would be doomed if it didn't rain in the next week or so.

According to Dr Gupta, there is no chance of the region getting sustained rainfall anytime during the next six days. The NCMRWF proposes to come out with a special agro advisory for the soya farmers by Monday next.

In its update, the NCMRWF said monsoon rainfall was subdued over most parts of the country during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning with the western end of the monsoon trough remaining close to the foothills of Himalayas.

The eastern end had started shifting towards North Bay of Bengal and passed through Bahraich, Lucknow, Allahabad, Kolkata and southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal.

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