The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon exits West; fresh southern pulse brewing

THE southwest monsoon signed off from parts of West Rajasthan while an east-west wind shear was getting established in the South in anticipation of an impending rain `pulse' on a day when mainland weather seesawed over the spatial scale.

Overall seasonal deficit worsened further to 6 per cent as on August 31, declining 3 per cent from the level recorded a week ago. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) statistics, the actual area-weighted rainfall till date was 675.8 mm against a normal of 717.9 mm.

There was some improvement in the rainfall profile to the east and northeast during the last week when monsoon extended its break phase. Typically, the southern peninsula also benefited from the phase, with the met subdivision of Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry managing to come out of the deficit-rain category.

Those who found themselves in the deficit were west Rajasthan (34 per cent); west Uttar Pradesh (26); Jharkhand (34); Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (21) and coastal Andhra Pradesh (21) per cent.

In line with the predictions by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), monsoon withdrew from parts of West Rajasthan on Friday. The line of monsoon withdrawal passed through Sriganganagar, Bikaner and Barmer.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF, said model predictions continued to indicate the formation of an east-west shear zone across south peninsular India at 3.1 km above mean sea level within the next 48 hours. This will clear the way for the revival of monsoon from the South.

All southern States are expected to fall within the footprint of the rain band progressing inland from the South. Rainfall over all four southern States, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh is expected to increase. Dr Gupta singled out Tamil Nadu as a major prospective beneficiary from the fresh monsoon pulse.

The shear zone is likely to advance at a leisurely pace northward causing rainfall to spread over the eastern parts of central India in the subsequent days.

Weathermen will keenly watch the progress of the system since the spatial distribution of rain could decide the fate of standing crops in parts of central and west central India. They do not expect the rain band to progress into the northwest, given the preponderant high-pressure zone in the region.

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