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Wednesday, Sep 07, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Sideways movement

K. Premkumar

TUESDAY's market action witnessed sideways movement. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the other hand, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation The September contract opened around its previous level and went down by fifteen points, making an intra-day low of 2,405.60. During the later part of the day, bulls recovered most of their losses. The September contract closed with a marginal gain of five points over Monday's close.

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The up-trend in the September contract remains intact. The long position in the September contract is locked with a decent profit of 15 points. The exit and short position for the September contract is placed far away from the last traded price. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation There were no changes to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking in the list also remained unchanged. The top three traded counters in this segment were State Bank, Reliance and Tata Steel.

There are no downtrend counters in the list. All the uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. There are ample opportunities on the selling side. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Reliance, Reliance Energy, Bank of India and Hindustan Lever. The best opportunity for Thursday's trading is likely to exist on the short side of Reliance Energy. This counter is in sideways mode. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 active counters list remains intact. Tuesday's market action resulted in terminating the uptrend in Reliance.

Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the downtrend in i-flex, Infosys and SAIL are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have an opportunity in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Selling in Reliance is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. A bear move on Thursday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in Reliance.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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