The Hindu Business Line : Another drencher for Mumbai cannot be ruled out: Met

THE Konkan region and Mumbai have to keep track of the deep depression from Monday's cyclone, since any sudden detour from the generally westward course into the peninsula can place the system into a slot right over these regions by the weekend.

Monsoon systems that traverse the country in September have a tendency to veer suddenly off-course, and this is what has raised the spectre of a drencher, the third this year, for these regions.

If the system were to stick to the westward course, it would cross over into Goa and South Gujarat in due course.

But any slight tilt to the west-northwest region could bring Mumbai within the line of sight, leading to some really wet weather, though not anywhere near the scale of the July 26 drencher. It is more likely to mimic the encore delivered in the metropolis a month down the line.

So it is advisable that civic authorities keep their powder dry, Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said. The local met office has been alerted to this effect, he told Business Line. On Tuesday afternoon, the deep depression was located over Jagdalpur with the associated rain belt in tow. The genesis, as the remnant of a system migrating from the western Pacific, gave the first-mover advantage over in-situ systems.

This explains the added staying power and further scope to propagate with some potency to boot, explained Dr Gupta. The convection pattern and cloudiness seem to suggest that the system will move into Maharashtra either as a depression or a well-marked low for two days.

He said systems originating in the western Pacific in the past week are showing a tendency to move west-northwest (towards Bay of Bengal) as against north-northwest (heading to China and Taiwanese coasts).

One reason could be the southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the massive belt of convection in the tropics, signalling the last leg of this year's monsoon.

There is a possibility of remnants of the west-northwest-bound systems crossing over into the bay and forming potent monsoon circulations. The fact that the western Pacific cyclone season peaks in September aids the reasoning.

Significantly, Dr Gupta said several models suggest that an approaching western disturbance in the form of a trough in the middle tropospheric westerlies will cause isolated to scattered rain in the northwest for three days from Thursday. The eastward-bound system is also expected to bring showers in East Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, two rain-deficit areas.

The deep depression caused heavy to very heavy rainfall in coastal Andhra Pradesh during the last 24 hours. Scattered to light to moderate rainfall was also reported from Orissa, Jharkhand, interior Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Going forward, the system is expected to lead to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Andhra Pradesh, coastal and north interior Karnataka and south Chhattisgarh during the next two days.

The rainfall activity over Andhra Pradesh is expected to decrease after Thursday, whereas it will likely become pronounced in the eastern parts, such as Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand.

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