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Friday, Sep 30, 2005


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Bull-run arrested

K. Premkumar

NEITHER bulls nor bears could gain much from the day's proceedings.

The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Bull domination on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the other hand, sentiment reading is likely to turn bearish.

Click here for table

Nifty futures recommendation: The October month contract opened with a bull gap of 11 points and went further by 21 points making an intra-day high of 2,631.70. During the later part of day's trading, bears wiped out their early losses. The October contract moved within a range of 36 points. It closed with a marginal gain of 7 points from its previous close.

The long position in the expired September contract is likely to be closed out at 2,611.20. This leaves the trade with the profit of around 50 points. Bullish trigger level for the October contract is placed closer to its last traded price. Bull move on Friday is likely to trigger this level.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains undisturbed. The ranking of the list had minor changes. Satyam Computer and Tata Motors interchanged their position. ICICI Bank moved to seventh position followed by Infosys and ONGC.

Both the uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat for Friday's trading. There are no downtrend counters in the list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in eight counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. For Friday's trading, the best bet is likely to be buying in SBI. This counter is in sideways mode. Bull move on Friday is likely to trigger the fresh uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: There are no changes to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. McDowell moved to fourth position followed by India Infoline and SRF.

Bear move on Friday is likely to terminate all the uptrend counters in the list. Both the downtrend counters are likely to be safe for Friday's trading. There are two opportunities on either side of trading for Friday. The best bet is likely to be buying in Reliance Capital. Bull move on Friday is likely to reverse the existing down trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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