The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon deficient in 133 dists

AS much as 28 per cent of the districts have received either deficient or scanty rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year, says the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

At least 133 districts find themselves in the deficient category and 11 scanty as per statistics valid up to September 28, two days before the season ended.

In a recap of events, the NCMRWF said the monsoon current had crossed into the extreme southeast Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea on May 26 with a lag of 11 days. The subsequent northward progression was sluggish over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The system, however, managed to cover some ground by being able to make the onset over south Kerala only five days behind schedule.

The monsoon current ran into a beachhead over Goa on June 8 and stagnated for another eight days by when the overall rainfall deficiency had jumped to 59 per cent. The NCMRWF attributed this to an anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation over central India and the Arabian Sea. The scenario took a turn for the worse with the setting in of severe heat wave conditions over the eastern and northern parts.

But the second week of June witnessed the arrival of the second monsoon pulse, followed in the next week by the third. These helped not only reverse the severe heat wave conditions but also send the monsoon current galloping right through the central, western and northwestern parts of the country. The entire landmass was brought within monsoon footprint as early as by June-end, 15 days ahead of schedule.

July and August saw the monsoon play out closest best to being a weather system noted for its unpredictable inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal variations.

It ran into soaking wet and bone dry patches concurrently on either flanks of the country. The waxing and waning has held good ever since, culminating in an overall near-normal rainfall record by September 28.

Now on a withdrawal mode, the system brought on Monday more parts of east and west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and the remaining parts of Saurashtra, Kutch and north Arabian Sea in a progressively increasing swathe of the geography it is leaving behind. The withdrawal line passed through Bahraich, Allahabad, Umeria, Seoni, Khandwa and Surat.

An NCMRWF update said Sunday's low-pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Orissa has moved north-northeast, becoming well marked in the process. On the other hand, the upper air cyclonic circulation over Saurashtra and Kutch has become less marked.

Under the influence of these systems, fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls is likely over the Northeastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim and north Orissa and scattered over north Konkan and south Orissa during the next 2-3 days.

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