The Hindu Business Line : Turkey's historic journey for full EU membership begins

Today is widely rated as a "historic and epoch-making day" both for the European Union and Turkey, as negotiations for "full membership" begin in earnest.

With a third of European Union's per capita GDP ($7350 compared with EU's average $26,800), and its 70-million population rising by a million every year, during the next decade, Turkey may emerge as the largest European nation state after Germany, with a population of 80 million. Turkey's demographic advantage is that nearly two-thirds of its population are young "below 25." In the "fast greying world" of the European Union with almost a nil population growth rate, Turkey is rated as a welcome addition.

According to current projections, Europeans live longer and given the nil birth rate, pensioners will out-number wage earners in 2020.

Hence, Turkey may provide the future manpower need for the European industries. Above all, Turkey is a secular Muslim country and has deeply imbibed the heritage and legacy of Kamal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey who ruled and `Europeanised' Turkey in the 1920s. Like many non-European ethnic memories in key EU member states, Turkish residents in EU cities experience xenophobia in work places. Most of the Turkish population in the EU is rated as "working class," but in recent years, the second generation of indigenously born Turks is venturing into business and professions and emerging as a prosperous minority. In Germany and Holland, the Turkish presence is more pronounced but at a social level, there are huge self-imposed barriers on both sides of the ethnic divide. The overall quest of most Turks, like first generation immigrants, is to make money and settle back in Turkey with small businesses.

It is often forgotten that cheap Turkish labour has played a crucial role in restructuring Europe's post-war economy after the shattering experience of World War 2. Currently, there are over four million Turks working in European industries and over two million live in Germany. Although the EU membership negotiations have commenced, it is widely assumed by Turkish and European observers that Turkey may attain a full membership status after 10-15 years, as the country has to go through major legal and social reforms to conform to the European standards of "human values."

Analysts are today weighing the effect of Turkish membership of EU with well-pronounced pros and cons. The European Union's largest secular Muslim state could be a bridge between Europe and the West Asia.

Turkey has a fast growing economy based on free market principles and it also maintains the largest army in the European Union and NATO. Turkey is a founder member of NATO and the US-led Western strategic alliance.

Preparation of the European Union membership will soon initiate major judicial and legal reforms. Turkey has a Customs Union with the EU since 1996 and more than half of its trade is with the bloc.

But despite much `pro-EU Membership rhetoric' on both sides of the ethnic divide, a vast majority of Europeans and even Turks have strong reservations about Turkish membership of the European Union.

The Turks feel "unwanted" and many radicals have even argued that Turks should crave to protect their own identity as inheritors of the Ottoman Empire, which lasted for 900 years. Nationalist Turks feel they should look at the oil-rich Arab world and West Asia to expand Turkey's commercial and investment links.

While at this stage, Turkey's membership is an academic debate, many Turks also feel that they do not belong to the European "Christian Club."

Pre-eminent European observers feel that letting Turkey in the European Union is a politically astute and strategically bold move. More than the Europeans and Turks, the US establishment is very enthusiastic about Turkey's membership of the European Union.

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