The Hindu Business Line : `Low' shaping up over Bay to herald reverse monsoon

THE National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) kept up for a second day its watch for favourable conditions to develop for the onset of northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood.

Model predictions continue to suggest northeasterly winds getting organised and a helpful east-west shear zone becoming predominant in the lower tropospheric levels in the run-up to the onset earliest by Monday. The southward movement of the anti-cyclone with a band of strong easterly winds to its south will only hasten the process.

The further weakening of the prevailing low-pressure area over Gangetic West Bengal, as observed on Thursday, is expected to clear the way for the anti-cyclone to move south in its projected trajectory.

Even while weakening further, the `low' is expected to bring scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Assam.

This spell will last for the next 24 hours only. Subsequently, rainfall will get confined to isolated spells in the regions.

Meanwhile, the upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal persisted and has grown in vertical extent. It is likely to intensify further and get organised into a `low,' which could go to consolidate the onset phase of the `monsoon on retreat.'

Model predictions further suggest that northwest India and parts of central and west India may continue to witness mainly dry weather conditions.

The southwest monsoon has further withdrawn from many parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, some more parts of Chhattisgarh, parts of north Orissa and north Maharashtra and remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

On Thursday, the monsoon withdrawal line passed through Forebaseganj, Dumka, Jamshedpur, Jharsuguda, Raipur, Wardha, Buldana and Nasik. In region-wise forecast for the next 4-5 days, the NCMRWF said West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States are likely to experience scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity during next 24 hours.

On the other hand, wet weather is expected to predominate coastal Orissa over the next 2-3 days. Isolated rains are likely over rest of the regions except over east Uttar Pradesh where mainly dry weather may prevail.

In the south, the focal region for the northeast monsoon, isolated rains are likely during the next two days. Subsequently, the rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and south coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to perk up.

In the west, north Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra are likely to experience isolated to scattered rainfall activity thanks mainly to the presence of an upper air cyclonic circulation, though it has become less marked overnight.

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