The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon withdrawal resumes as `low' stays put

THE very slow movement of the `low' over south Bay of Bengal seems to have provided the perfect excuse for the resident anti-cyclone to descend into the lower latitudes, leading to the resumption of monsoon withdrawal.

The withdrawal had been stalled mid-way after the easterly waves intervened, culminating in the formation of the `low' over the south Bay on Sunday.

Further movement of the `low' to the warmer waters of the peninsular coast has been slow, said Dr K. J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

The system has persisted overnight and it is likely to become well marked while tracking a westerly/north-westerly direction in the coming days. It will intensify in tandem with its movement into the warmer waters.

Tamil Nadu and the adjoining States have been experiencing light to moderate rainfall for the last two days under the twin effect of the prevalent lower tropospheric north-easterly wind regime in association with the movement of the `low'. The enhanced rainfall activity will continue, and even extend to south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, parts of Telangana, Kerala and interior Karnataka over the coming few days.

According to Dr Ramesh, monsoon withdrawal resumed overnight in a dramatic fashion with Bihar, Maharashtra, Arunachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, parts of Assam and Meghalaya, Gangetic West Bengal, Telangana, north Interior Karnataka, Goa, Orissa and Chhattisgarh being covered under one fell swoop.

This is in line with the intra-seasonal variability in monsoon behaviour that was witnessed when the season peaked in July and later in September. The withdrawal process has now been relegated to being of academic interest only with only insignificant stretches over the mainland left to be covered. On Monday, the withdrawal line passed through Passighat, north Lakhimpur, Chharmuki, Krishnanagar, Keonjhgarh, Titlagarh, Ramagundam, Gulbarga, Bijapur and Vengurla.

In its weather update, the NCMRWF said rain has been scattered to fairly widespread during the past 24 hours ending Monday morning over parts of Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka. Model predictions indicate that the hilly regions of Himachal, Uttaranchal and Sikkim are likely to come under isolated to scattered rainfall activity for the next three to four due to the eastward movement of an upper air cyclonic circulation.

In region-wise forecast, the NCMRWF said isolated to scattered spells of rain are likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim while scattered to fairly widespread spells are likely over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and the north-eastern States.

Apart from the notified areas in the south, the islands of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are also expected to receive scattered to fairly widespread rains over the next 24 hours. In the west, north Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra are likely to experience isolated to scattered rainfall.

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