The Hindu Business Line : Low pressure persists; landfall may be delayed

THE northeast monsoon has had a productive session during the last 24 hours ending Thursday morning, with the rain-driving systems by the peninsular flanks displaying contrasting levels of maturity.

The low-pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of coastal Tamil Nadu is persisting and has lately intensified into a well-marked `low'. Its Arabian Sea counterpart too is persisting , with associated upper air cyclonic circulations extending up to mid-tropospheric levels. Under this scenario, enhanced rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy falls has been forecast for the southern peninsula during the next 2-3 days.

An update by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said rainfall has been scattered to fairly widespread for the fifth consecutive day over parts of Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka.

Among stations recording heavy rains (in cm) are Chennai (15); Nellore (12); Chennai Airport (9); Kochi, Nedumbassary and Kozhikode (6 each); Paradip, Tirupathy, Tondi and Thiruvananthapuram (5). Scattered light to moderate rainfall was reported also from coastal Orissa, south Konkan, Goa and south Madhya Maharashtra.

The `low' that lay anchored over south Bay over the past four days is now showing signs of movement to the west/northwest. Its eye is now positioned to aim straight for making a landfall over the eastern peninsular coast, but without showing any undue haste.

According to Dr K.J. Ramesh of the NCMRWF, it will be a couple of days more before the landfall takes place, which translates into an extended wet spell for the south peninsula for as many days.

The already enhanced level of rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Kerala and Karnataka is expected to continue. Regions as far northeast as the coastal regions of Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and even the Northeastern States will receive rainfall during the period.

Speaking to Business Line, Dr Ramesh said that one feature that has distinguished the ongoing season from the rest has been the low or almost nil thunder activity.

Model predictions indicate that the hilly regions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Sikkim are likely to have isolated to scattered rainfall activity for the next two days under the influence of a passing but weakening western disturbance.

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