![]() Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Saturday, Oct 15, 2005 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather `Low' crosses land; rain belt moving northward Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , Oct. 14 THURSDAY'S well-marked `low' over southwest Bay of Bengal beat forecasts to cross over land overnight and lie positioned over Rayalaseema even as it looked to spin away slow in a west/northwest direction. The crossover will lead to the shifting of the belt of heavy rain away from Tamil Nadu, Kerala and south interior Karnataka to the north and west. Andhra Pradesh, south Orissa, north interior Karnataka, coastal Karnataka and Maharashtra will benefit in the bargain. Isolated to scattered rain will continue to occur in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and south interior Karnataka. Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is also expected over parts of east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar over the next 1-2 days. North coastal regions of Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and the Northeastern States will get isolated rain during this period. Speaking to Business Line, Dr K.J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said although travelling west and appearing to launch itself across the peninsula to the western flank, the system is not likely to travel the full distance over land. This is due to the presence of a stronger counterpart system in the Arabian Sea, which is located out into the open sea (which accounts for its potency). A more likely scenario would be for the Bay-generated system to get merged into the east-west shear zone and thereby lose its separate identity. The shear zone itself is expected to last for a while, sustaining the overall wet weather in the southern peninsula. Dr Ramesh did not see another `low' taking shape over the Bay in the next few days but said a watch would be mounted for favourable conditions developing, given that the easterlies have established themselves. A sea-based system crossing over land accounts for oodles of energy, and these would have to be recouped in order that a follow-up system is generated. So there is likely to be a lull before the Bay warmed up to the next "pulse,' said Dr Ramesh. In its weather update, the NCMRWF said rainfall has been scattered to fairly widespread for the sixth consecutive day over parts of Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana and Karnataka, punctuated by heavy rains in some pockets. Light to moderate rainfall has been reported from coastal Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, south Konkan, Goa and south Madhya Maharashtra.
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