The Hindu Business Line : Intense wet session in South; `low' brewing

THE northeast monsoon currents have been rampaging across the peninsula over the past few days with the intense wet weather peaking during the last 24 hours ending Sunday morning, bringing life to a standstill at many places.

The incessant rainfall has been attributed to the ongoing interaction of two weather systems, which is tipped to continue for another two days, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said in its update on Sunday.

But it has also notified that a full-fledged `low' (the prevailing rain-driving systems have been upper air cyclonic storms, not amounting to `low's) might be taking shape over the seemingly hyperactive Bay of Bengal.

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF, model predictions continue to suggest formation of the `low' over the south-central Bay around Tuesday/Wednesday. Under its influence, rainfall activity over south peninsular India and the Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands could be driven up many times over in scale.

In Kerala, Kochi shuddered under a roaring spell of rain amounting to 21 cm during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning. Significant rainfall amounts were also reported from a few places in the Northeastern States, the coastal areas of West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Chief amounts of rainfall were: Bangalore - 12 cm; Jagdalpur - 9 cm; Shillong - 8 cm; Tejpur - 7 cm; Machilipatnam - 7 cm; and Agartala - 6 cm.

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and the neighbourhood (marking the zone of productive interaction between an extra-tropical weather system and the northeast monsoon system) has weakened and is now seen as a trough extending from north coastal Andhra Pradesh to sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim in the lower tropospheric levels.

An NCMRWF outlook said the interaction of these two systems may continue for another two days and move further eastward leading to copious rainfall over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and north coastal Orissa.

The upper air cyclonic circulation as part of the seasonal east-west shear zone now lies over Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood extending up to 4.5 km above sea level. Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep islands during the next 2-3 days.

Isolated rainfall activity is expected over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during Tuesday and Wednesday. Mainly dry weather is likely to prevail over the rest of northern India. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy spells is expected over most part of east India except in east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where isolated rain is forecast during the next two days.

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