The Hindu Business Line : `Low' materialises, tipped to intensify further

MONDAY'S upper air cyclonic circulation whipped up quite a churn over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal, scaling itself up into a low-pressure area to the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay by Tuesday afternoon.

According to the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), model prediction continued to suggest its further intensification and a likely northwestward movement during the next 48 hours.

Under its influence, the rainfall activity over southern peninsula is tipped to reach a crescendo, punctuated with episodes of heavy to very heavy falls. Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh will initially bear the brunt of the severe wet weather being generated.

Subsequently, with the system gaining in latitude while continuing to track a north-northwesterly course, the rain belt is tipped to extend northwards along the east coast to north coastal Andhra Pradesh and even up to Orissa.

Northeast monsoon systems are known for their tendency to reserve the most active weather to areas north of the centre. This explains the heightened activity in north Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh ahead of the centre of the prevailing system making an approach anywhere close to these areas.

The outer rain bands are expected to lash Orissa and even beyond, irrespective of the location where it makes a landfall.

In its forecast for the next few days, the NCMRWF said fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy rains are expected over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days. Scattered to fairly widespread rains are also likely over the rest of the region during this period.

The widespread rainfall activity with heavy falls is likely to extend to north coastal Andhra Pradesh subsequently.

Meanwhile, climate forecasts for November-January 2006 issued by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction of Columbia University saw `enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation for portions of India and Sri Lanka.' This is believed to apply also to areas where the northeast monsoon is playing out concurrently.

According to monsoon watchers who preferred to be anonymous, the prognosis suggests that the hyperactive October could be followed by a quieter November. But since India did not have a formal system of forecasting northeast monsoon, they have opted for a wait-and-watch attitude.

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