The Hindu Business Line : North-East monsoon pauses to take a breath in; fresh spell likely soon

FORECASTS by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) indicate that the northeast monsoon may have only paused for taking a breath in, before roaring back to life over the south peninsula earliest by Thursday next.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF, told Business Line that the northeast monsoon activity might just have brought its destructive run of the past few days over the southeast peninsula to just a stroll over south coastal Andhra Pradesh on Sunday.

On making landfall near Ongole on Friday evening, the deep depression lost some of its vitality splitting itself up into a land and sea-based system each. By Saturday, the twin system had interacted and converged into a well-marked `low' slightly to the west of the same area but remaining practically stationary through the day.

On Sunday, the system got weakened further into a feeble low-pressure area with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to the mid-tropospheric levels. Dr Gupta said that even at this stage, the system is potent enough to bring fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy rainfall to Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Kerala during the next 24 hours. The northeast monsoon system is likely to be in a subdued state of activity for the next couple of days, when it will build on available energies to heave itself back to top form. The NCMRWF has predicted that peninsular India will experience light to moderate rainfall activity during this interval.

But the proceedings will have revved up by Thursday/Friday when Tamil Nadu and the adjoining south coastal Andhra Pradesh will expectedly wake up to a fresh pulse of the northeast monsoon. The elongated east-west shear zone, which has apparently spent itself out after emptying a trough-full of moisture into successive Bay systems, will have replenished stocks through pipelines extending from both the peninsular seas.

In its region-wise forecasts for the next few days, the NCMRWF said isolated to scattered rainfall activity is expected over Orissa, the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Isolated rains may occur over the rest of the region except east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where mainly dry weather may prevail during the next three days.

Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Kerala during the next 24 hours. Going forward, the activity is likely to decrease over these areas. Rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh may increase Thursday onwards.

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