The Hindu Business Line : Shear zone gets 2nd engine sputtering to life again

THE east-west shear zone just got its other engine sputtering to life with the southeast Arabian Sea warming up to host a cyclonic circulation on Tuesday, threatening to pour it down heavily on the South Tamil Nadu and Kerala coasts for two more days.

The expected easing of activity thereafter will translate into lesser intense rainfall, not necessarily the `draining' of the zone as such, Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) clarified in response to a report quoting him in these columns on Tuesday.

The northeast monsoon activity will continue to hold sway over the peninsula at least until November 15, which will be marked by light to moderate rainfall across the region, Dr Gupta added.

The system over the Arabian Sea has led to the formation of what meteorologists call the `temple-shaped' isobars (lines denoting equal barometric pressure) bordering the shear zone. This is most favourable for northeast monsoon to prosper, and will be evidenced best in the pounding that the east and west coasts are preparing to subject themselves over the next two days, and possibly a third.

According to Dr Gupta, satellite pictures on Tuesday revealed the `low' over the southwest Bay of Bengal having bifurcated into two land and sea-based sub-systems of concentrated rain bands. This represented the two rain `maxima' at work on the coast and off it, generating torrential downpour.

Southern Kerala will join south coastal Tamil Nadu to come straight under the line of sight of these marauding rain bands.

Certain areas in the region will be subjected to a pummelling of an order that has swamped Karaikal in Tamil Nadu over the past few days. Though the prevailing climes are best suited for cyclones to develop, no such activity was on view at least for the moment.

In its update on Tuesday, the NCMRWF said heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Tuesday. Moderate rainfall occurred also over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Kerala.

Chief amounts of rainfall (in cm) are: Karaikal 30; Nagapattinam 28; Parangipettai 23; Tiruvarur 21; Sirkali 20, Chidambaram and Kattumannarkoil 18 each; Nannilam 16, Panruti 14, Cuddalore, Mannargudi and Mayiladuthurai 13 each; Cheyyur, Kodavasal and Tiruthuraipoondi, Orathanadu and Pattukottai 10 each; Pondicherry Airport, Thanjavur and Tiruvidaimarudur nine each; Srimushnam, Needamangalam, Jayankondam eight each and Kumbakonam and Muthupet seven each.

In region-wise forecasts for the next four-five days, the NCMRWF said in the south, the reinvigorated shear zone would bring widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls over coastal Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry for another two-three days. Scattered to fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are likely over interior Tamil Nadu, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. Scattered to fairly widespread rains are expected over Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep.

In the north, the existing western disturbance is likely to cause isolated rain/snow over Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days. Another western disturbance is seen approaching northwest India, which may cause isolated to scattered rain/snowfall activity over the hilly region for three days from Thursday.

Isolated to scattered snow/rains are expected over Jammu and Kashmir during the next five days and other hilly regions from Thursday. In the east, isolated to scattered rainfall activity is expected over the Northeastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim and coastal Orissa over the next two days.

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