The Hindu Business Line : Outlook for monsoon revival maintained

MODEL predictions continue to indicate the commencement of a fresh round of rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu and adjoining states around Saturday with the low-pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal intensifying and moving closer to coast.

Fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are expected over the region for three days from Saturday as per medium-term projections by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

In its weather update on Wednesday, the NCMRWF said that the `low' over southeast Bay of Bengal persisted. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extended up to 2.1 km above mean sea level. The system is likely to intensify at somewhat slower than normal pace and move west-northwestwards.

The counterpart system upper air cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea also persisted, extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level. The east-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence is expected to get established soon with the rain bands-rich Inter Tropical Convergence Zone moving north from its position along the Equator.

In its region-wise forecasts, the NCMRWF said mainly dry weather may prevail over north and northwest India for the next three days. Isolated rains/snow are expected over hilly areas for two days from Sunday in view of the passing of a western disturbance.

Mainly dry weather may prevail over eastern region during the period. Isolated rains are expected over the northern states of the northeast region for three days from Friday.

In the south, fairly widespread rains are likely in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and scattered over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep for the next two-three days before the tempo picks up Saturday onwards.

Gains for Andhra, TN: Latest updates by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicate Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu having extended their surplus rain records into the second week of November. The district of Chennai stands out with a +227 per cent surplus up till Wednesday (November 16).

These records will be more or less maintained with the fresh spell expectedly resulting from the `low' that is slowly making its way towards the eastern coast.

All three meteorological subdivisions in Andhra Pradesh — Coastal Andhra Pradesh (+74 per cent), Telengana (+85 per cent) and Rayalaseema (+95 per cent) — maintained excess rainfall records, which was almost nearly replicated in Tami Nadu and Pondicherry as well.

Only two districts in this subdivision — Tuticorin and Tirunelveli — failed to make it to the excess/normal category. In doing so, they merely carried over their deficient records from the previous week.

But the situation was different in Kerala, where the northeast monsoon extended its mediocre run into November in most districts.

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