The Hindu Business Line : Heavy rain forecast for southern TN, Kerala

FRIDAY'S low-pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal found ideal foil in the warm waters along the Sri Lanka coast to feed on and intensify progressively into a well marked `low' on Saturday and a tropical depression on Sunday.

Located at 8N and 84.5 (along the Sri Lankan latitude but 700 km to the southeast of Nagapattinam) on Sunday evening, the system is forecast to move slowly westward during the next 24 hours and later head west northwestward before crossing into the peninsula.

In earlier analysis made, the warming anomaly was found lacking along the peninsular coast for the system to intensify rapidly and trigger the impending round of rainfall. This was also forecast to slow down its further evolution and landfall. But the warmer waters along the Sri Lanka coast was just what it wanted to strengthen overnight and set itself along course to make the first landfall.

The fact that the system is embedded within the east-west shear zone covering Bay of Bengal, southern parts of India and Arabian Sea will go to ensure that this zone of monsoon turbulence will remain active during the coming days. The relative strengthening of the zone over the last two days had caused a weak cyclonic circulation to rear its head again over the southeast Arabian Sea, which persisted on Sunday as well.

The prevailing conditions are conducive for the system to gain further strength till such time as it crosses into Sri Lanka. According to projections, it is now tipped to encounter the orography of the Sri Lankan coast and dump some heavy rain, before deflecting to the extreme south Indian coast.

Even at that stage, it will pack some heavy rain bands as it curls into the peninsula, says Dr K. J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). Thick cloud formations were sighted over parts of Tamil Nadu on Sunday, including the capital city of Chennai.

Under the scenario, rainfall activity may resume within the next 12 hours over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and adjoining States, along the coast first and progressively into the hinterland. Scattered to fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls can be expected over the regions of coastal Tamil Nadu initially.

The slow west-northwestward movement of the system will likely bring widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls to interior southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, while it will be scattered to fairly widespread rains over south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Projections by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said the system will be active through the whole of the next week. Dr Ramesh seemed to largely concur with this outlook. After crossing into Kerala, the system will enter the Arabian Sea and set up a base for further strengthening.

Real-time weather forecasts made by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in association and the National Centres for Environmental Prediction said rainfall will be above normal during the week for parts of southern Kerala, north interior Tamil Nadu, south interior and coastal Karnataka.

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