The Hindu Business Line : Coastal AP in line of fire as `Baaz' aims to spare Chennai

TROPICAL Cyclone Baaz paused to take a breath 450 km east-southeast of Chennai on Wednesday morning, but is getting set for the one mighty heave that will take it straight to south coastal Andhra Pradesh latest by Thursday evening.

Chennai is most likely to get a reprieve from full-scale wrath of the storm since most of the clouding has tended to concentrate lately to the north of the system, said Dr K. J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

But the coastal districts of Machilipatnam, Nellore and Prakasham had better keep their powder dry, Dr Ramesh told Business Line.

In another significant observation, he said there were only even chances of a follow-up cyclonic circulation in the extreme southeast Bay of Bengal charting a course aimed at the peninsular coast. Given the overbearing presence of a westerly trough from the mid-latitudes, it is just as well that this circulation might take a north-northeast course headed towards the Bangladesh coast.

Meanwhile, Cyclone Baaz engaged itself down to the lower gears during the 12 hours ending Wednesday morning, possibly because of weakening of the associated deep convection, reasoned the Honolulu-based Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). But the circulatory features were still organised, which should enable the storm to continue tracking west-northwest to the eastern peninsular coast.

According to forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system is likely to intensify further and move in west-northwest to cross extreme north Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by Thursday morning. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts during the next 48 hours.

But the JTWC said storm intensification would be limited by vertical wind shear, a phenomenon in which the prevailing upper tropospheric winds destroy the top of the cyclonic storm. `Baaz' is expected to begin to weaken after 24 hours from landfall as a result of increasing wind shear and proximity to land.

Some models now expect that the landfall will take place around noon on Thursday. The JTWC and the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Group of London have slightly advanced it to around noon the same day.

The JTWC has said that the approaching storm will have maximum sustained wind speeds peaking to 50 knots (92 km/h) with gusts topping 65 knots (120 km/h) as it bears down on the eastern peninsular coast. Within 24 hours of landfall, the wind speeds will have been reduced to 45 knots (83 km/h) and 55 knots (101 km/h), respectively.

The UK Met Office has said that Tropical Cyclone Baaz will continue to be a storm with moderate strength and lie over interior extreme north Tamil Nadu until Friday before moving further west. It is expected to weaken to below tropical storm strength after Sunday.

Meanwhile, on the western flank of the peninsula, the low-pressure area over the central parts of south Arabian Sea persisted on Wednesday, said an NCMRWF update. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.1 km above sea level.

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