The Hindu Business Line : Bay system turns depression, churning fast to the coast

THE National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) maintained the fresh rain alert for coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh as the `low' over southeast Bay of Bengal scaled up in intensity to become a depression (tropical storm status) on Tuesday.

The outer rain bands of the system are expected to first probe the south coastal Andhra Pradesh Thursday onwards as can be inferred from the clouding pattern, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the NCMRWF.

But this is not to suggest a possible area of landfall, he added. It is expected that fairly widespread to widespread rains will be triggered along south coastal Andhra Pradesh as well as the Tamil Nadu coasts as the day progresses.

With tropical storm status came an assigned number, 06B, which will hold till the system grows in strength to become a named cyclone, prospects of which are being rated as high. It may be recalled that Tropical Cyclone `Baaz' had been assigned 05B as it prowled the Bay waters.

As for 06B, the three initial cycles of evolution have been accomplished at a reasonably fast pace. The westerly trough that swept Baaz off its feet is seen having retreated to the African continent and the adjoining Arabian Gulf, posing no immediate threat to 06B. But what does is the steering anti-cyclone aloft with a core of winds to the west and southwest and blowing to the northeast, Dr Ramesh clarified.

This has resulted in the associated clouding getting concentrated to the north and northeast of 06B, bringing south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Krishna district in the line of sight on Tuesday. But it is still 500 nautical miles (920 km) east of Chennai, and is at least three days away from being of immediate consequence. The warm ocean waters are situated to the west/southwest of the system, which was located at 11.6N and 88.7E (the same latitude as Pudukottai and neighbourhood) at 2.30 p.m. on Tuesday.

A University of Wisconsin-Madison update said enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicated continued organisation of deep convection associated with a well-defined circulation centre. Intensification will occur slowly in an environment of low to moderate vertical wind shear.

The system has been traversing in a west-northwest direction during the last 24 hours, and is expected to stick to it more or less. There is an outside chance of it falling back to a straight line to the west given the location of the warm anomaly. On Tuesday, accompanying winds had a maximum sustained speed reaching 35 knots (64 km/h) and gusting to 45 knots (83 km/h), says the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC).

The UK Met Office forecast said says the system will lie as a weak tropical storm at 12.9N and 80.4E (Cheyyur-Marutadu) by December 12 (Monday next).

According to an NCMRWF update, scattered rainfall was reported from Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. Moderate rainfall activity is expected to continue over south peninsular India.

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Bay system turns depression, churning fast to the coast