The Hindu Business Line : `Fanoos' slows down, but sticks to charted course

THE fluctuating values of the wind shear late on Wednesday night slowed down tropical cyclone Fanoos over southwest Bay of Bengal. But the latest satellite data available on Thursday indicated that they are turning in the cyclone's favour once again to resume the journey coastward.

`Fanoos' was situated 350 nautical miles (650 km) east-southeast of Chennai at 10.4N and 85.6E around 13.00 p.m. on Thursday after decelerating from nine knots to four knots in lateral movement.

According to an update from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the cyclonic storm had moved predominantly in a south-westerly direction during the last 24 hours.

The warm ocean waters that fuel its roller-coaster ride are still located to the west-southwest.

Dr K.J. Ramesh of the NCMRWF said the system, with a core of winds clocking up to 100 km/h in maximum sustained wind speed, is now expected to move west-southwest during the next day or two.

It is expected to undergo only gradual intensification during the period.

In the first official hint on landfall, the NCMRWF said it could happen probably on Saturday/Sunday along the south coastal Tamil Nadu.

The latest satellite pictures on Thursday showed that the upper level cloudiness associated with `Fanoos' had already reached south coastal Andhra Pradesh and extreme north Tamil Nadu coast.

Light to scattered showers are likely on early Friday morning in Chennai.

The rains could intensify and become fairly widespread to widespread first over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and subsequently coastal Tamil Nadu.

The NCMRWF warned that strong onshore winds associated with `Fanoos' could buffet south coastal Andhra Pradesh and extend progressively to the Tamil Nadu coast. Almost all major international models surveyed were in agreement with NCMRWF on projected landfall coordinates. Satellite data put out by the US Defence Services suggested that Pondicherry-Cuddalore could be the landfall area, while the UK Met Office plumped for Karaikal-Nagapattinam.

The Tropical Storm Risk Group said it could be anywhere on the stretch from Karaikal, Mayiladuthurai, Thiruvarur and Vedaranyam to Thiruthuraipoondi.

Even the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, which had earlier in the day said that the system could dissipate over the waters just south of Chavakachcheri in eastern Sri Lanka, assessed in its latest update that `Fanoos' has started moving, slightly west-northwest of late, and is set to intensify before weakening as a tropical storm over land.

The NCMRWF said that even as `Fanoos' barrelled in for the last-mile approach, the zone of fairly widespread to widespread rains with heavy pockets of precipitation would start extending progressively inland in the two peninsular States.

The zone of heavy precipitation will bear down on south Tamil Nadu just ahead of the centre of the storm toying with the coastline.

Subsequently, the areas of scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity are expected to extend over to Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and entire coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Dr Ramesh said that a strong and deep westerly trough approaching the subcontinent on Monday/Tuesday next could result in the remnant of `Fanoos' being whipped away north-northeast as was the case with predecessor `Baaz.'

`Fanoos' could be dragged away much farther to the northeast, given the strength of the incoming trough.

This will result in the dispersal of rain-bearing clouds along an arc extending from the western coast right into the northeast.

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