Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Friday, Dec 16, 2005
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Friday, Dec 16, 2005 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather Fresh spell of rains likely in TN, Kerala Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , Dec. 15 CONVECTIVE rain bands from the `low' over south-east Bay of Bengal are seen fast approaching the eastern peninsular coast and are likely to trigger a fresh spell of scattered to fairly widespread rain over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala during the next 48 hours. The area of organised deep convection is seen having increased in size and has shown a slight west-north-westward movement during the past 24 hours, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). But this would not be sufficient to take the landfall area any farther than north Tamil Nadu. Model predictions suggest that the system may intensify slightly but keep moving largely to the west towards the Tamil Nadu coast. A reading of the sea surface temperatures reveals that the southwest Bay of Bengal (west of 85 deg E) has turned cooler (25-27 deg C, the threshold being 26.5 deg C) in the wake of cyclone `Fanoos' having passed. According to Dr Gupta, this should further support the outlook for the system intensifying not beyond the status of a well-marked low-pressure area, or at the most a depression. "We are already near the fag end of the season, marked by cooling seawater anomalies and increasing wind shear values. Both these act against initiation of violent systems that impact the coast. But for rain-battered Tamil Nadu, the wet session expected to set in itself could still prove to be a handful." This is the outlook for the next weather system, which an Australian forecaster says will take shape over the Indian Ocean later this month. But there is no discounting the rain threat here as well, Dr Gupta said. In its forecast, the NCMRWF said scattered to fairly widespread rains are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala, and Lakshadweep over the next two to three days. Isolated to scattered rains are expected over Rayalaseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka.
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