The Hindu Business Line : Depression in Bay not likely to intensify further

Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and isolated over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep. While fairly widespread rains are likely to commence along the Tamil Nadu coast from as early as Friday night, isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka from Saturday morning.

Thiruvananthapuram , Dec. 16

THURSDAY'S `low' over the southeast Bay of Bengal moved west and jumped two scales overnight to concentrate into a depression. On Friday afternoon, the system lay over southwest Bay of Bengal, about 650 km southeast of Nagapattinam on the south Tamil Nadu coast.

But the cooler waters in the southwest Bay, moderate vertical wind shear and the less-than-optimum `window' in time and space will curtail the chances for intensification and instead cause the system to remain a depression while crossing land, said Dr L.S. Rathore of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Pondicherry are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rains over coastal Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next three days, the NCMRWF said in its forecast.

Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 km/h are also likely along and off the Tamil Nadu coast from Saturday morning. The state of the sea will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Strange weather: Dr Rathore told Business Line that both the southern peninsula and northwest India have been witnessing a strange turn in weather events this season. What were hitherto considered innocuous easterly systems have suddenly packed stormy weather in the peninsula while the incoming mid-latitude westerlies performed indifferently in the plains of northwest India.

"We have a situation where a rain-battered Tamil Nadu scurries for cover as the next rain-bearing system approaches, while the unusually dry westerlies have left many a farmer in the northwest wish if only it had rained a little more. But rains have largely been confined to the higher reaches of the Himalayas. These are all anomalous weather patterns that would go to clearly mark out this season, " Dr Rathore said.

While most of the Rabi lands in the plains in the north are irrigated, a fresh round of precipitation that the westerlies are known to bring would have had a beneficial effect on the standing crop. Not only would the rate of growth pick up, the cost of irrigation could also be brought under control, especially in areas where groundwater is used for irrigation. North Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh and Haryana are examples.

As for the mustard farms of Punjab, a fifth round of irrigation would have had a favourable impact on the yield as well. But all these have come to nought, thanks to the freak weather.

On Friday, cold wave conditions prevailed over Punjab, parts of Rajasthan and Orissa. Model prediction suggests that the minimum temperatures over the areas are likely to rise by about two to three degree C from Sunday to Tuesday.

A western disturbance is likely to affect Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and adjoining areas of Punjab, Haryana and Uttaranchal during three days from Sunday. Under its influence, these areas may receive isolated to scattered rainfall with snowfall over the hilly regions.

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