The Hindu Business Line : Tropical storm shows signs of weakening

TROPICAL storm 07B, the deep depression in the southwest Bay of Bengal, which lay centred about 250 km east of Nagapattinam at 11.30 a.m. on Monday, has already started showing signs of weakening.

The central pressure of the system has scaled up from 987 hectoPascals overnight to 991 hectoPascals on Monday, which means that it has weakened by a count of four (strength being inversely proportional to the central pressure values), said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

A reduced minimum of 980 hectoPascals would have put 07B in cyclone category, but it has been encountering increasing wind shear under the influence of a large westerly trough advancing in from the opposite direction. The impact is also evidenced in the shift in direction from west-northwest to increasingly north-northeast.

International models surveyed suggested that the system would track a north-northeast movement over the coming days. This means 07B will clearly skip entire Tamil Nadu coast for a landfall, and keep moving parallel to it for the most part. The clouding was concentrated to the north and the northeast of the system and the active rain bands were lately found over south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EMCWF) has said in its seven-day outlook that the very warm waters (+2 deg above normal) over extreme northeast Bay of Bengal may cause 07B to intensify, possibly as a cyclone. According to ECMWF, the system would make a landfall on the Bangladesh coast by Christmas Eve.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has in its extended 48-hour forecast said that 07B is likely to find itself anchored over north Bay of Bengal to the east-southeast of Nellore in coastal Andhra Pradesh by Wednesday afternoon.

It also forecast the system taking a turn to north-northeast movement for its onward course. The JTWC analysis (valid for 48 hours) suggested that the cyclone would weaken as it tracks parallel to the Indian coastline into an environment of higher wind shear and dry, stable air.

The Tropical Storm Risk Group of London has concurred with the JTWC outlook. According to its analysis, 07B will lie weakened to a position to the east-southeast of Nellore by Wednesday afternoon.

The NCMRWF has forecast a northerly/northeasterly track for 07B during the next 24 to 48 hours, though initially it might move in the west-northwest direction. Under its influence, strong winds reaching speeds up to 60 km/hour are likely along north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 48 hours.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rains is likely over coastal Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two to three days.

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