The Hindu Business Line : Sugar output may rise in TN, AP

SUGARCANE production in the South, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, is expected to be higher than earlier estimates in the 2005-06 season following good monsoon.

Estimates of sugarcane output in Tamil Nadu are pegged at a new high of about 200 lakh tonnes (lt) against 181 lt expected earlier. Thus, sugar output - as a thumb rule about 10 per cent of the sugarcane production - could go up to a record 20 lt against earlier estimates of about 18 lt in Tamil Nadu, where sugar mills have started crushing cane and production is on after the recent spell of rains. The South Indian Sugar Mills Association has provided these estimates to the State Government.

Andhra Pradesh mills have also revised their output estimates - to about 12.75 lt sugar against 11 lt announced in November. That means an additional 10 lt of sugarcane over their previous estimate of about 110 lt.

However, in Tamil Nadu recovery is expected to take a beating following the recent rains. Mills have observed a drop of about 1.5-2 per cent in sugar recovery from every tonne of sugarcane. Mills that recovered over 10 per cent sugar from every tonne of cane are currently reporting about 8 per cent. But recoveries will increase as the crops dry after the rains. By February, the mills could be reporting normal levels - around 10 per cent - of sugar recovery, say sources.

Also, for the 2006-07 season planting which was to have been in full swing now has been delayed. But that is not a major concern as planting is expected to commence now. Also, the expansion in acreage will be rapid and farmers will catch up on the area coverage fast, say sources.

With the assured prices for cane and an assured market, sugarcane continues to be the most attractive crop for the farmers. A number of private mills in Tamil Nadu have announced sugarcane price of more than Rs 1,000 a tonne for the current season.

With the ample supply of water on hand for the coming season, sugarcane acreage is bound to grow. India finds itself in a comfortable production against the backdrop of a shortage in the international scene. Sugar prices are expected to be buoyant and sugar mills on a comfortable wicket.