![]() Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Tuesday, Jan 03, 2006 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather Westerly system stagnates, kicks up rain/snow in North Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , Jan. 2 THE prevailing western disturbance over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir has stagnated during the last 24 hours under the counter pull of the `induced low' over northeast Rajasthan and its neighbourhood. The overstay of the eastward-bound weather system is likely to cause isolated heavy to very heavy snowfall over the higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal during the next two days. The system, with the `low' in tow, is expected to move northeast, leading to a progressive decrease in precipitation activity over the region from Wednesday onwards, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said. Under the combined impact of the two, fairly widespread rain/snowfall is likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal, while it will be scattered over the plains of Punjab, Haryana (including Chandigarh and Delhi), North Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh. Night temperatures over northwest India have since shown a rising trend, and are now two to six degree Celsius above normal. The combined activity may cause temperatures to remain static for two days but they could fall by three to four deg C. NCMRWF has advanced the outlook for recurrence of fog over the region by a day to Wednesday onwards. Dr Akhilesh Gupta of NCMRWF told Business Line that western disturbances did not always induce the formation of a low. But when they do, they are made to undergo the drag effect thanks to the low locating itself just to the south-southeast of the parent. The induced low survives for a day or two but manages to slow down the pace of the parent western disturbance, which normally speeds away to the northeast at the rate of eight to 10 latitudes (800 km per day). The orography of the land also contributes to the drag, Dr Gupta said. The induced low is known to die out with the passage of the western disturbance but there have been cases where it has outlasted the normal tenure. This is because they draw life-sustaining moisture from the nearest water body the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal in the instant case. West Rajasthan is the preferred location for the `low' to throw itself up as part of the larger western disturbance system. On a global scale, there are only two other locations where these westerly systems are known to create induced lows - the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of China. Though rare, these systems have also been reported from parts of the West Atlantic. The induced lows generate rain/snow on their own mechanics since they are largely fed by the hinterland sea the Arabian Sea/the Bay of Bengal, the Mediterranean Sea or the South China Sea. Although western disturbances are extra-tropical (their origin being in the mid-latitudes), the induced lows are truly tropical in nature and generate rain/snowfall to a set pattern in terms of the geographies covered. In the South, an upper air cyclonic circulation over Sri Lanka and its neighbourhood persisted on Monday. Isolated rainfall activity is likely over the Andamans, South Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep in the next two-three days.
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