Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Saturday, Jan 07, 2006
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Saturday, Jan 07, 2006 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather North shivers, awaits next westerly system for respite Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , Jan 6 THOUGH freezing from the cold wave set off by a passing western disturbance, the north and northwest of the country are ironically left waiting for a successor system whose warm, rising air in the front could offer some respite from the harsh weather. But as is its wont, the system carries a sting in the tail in the form of cold, dense and subsiding air. Clearing of the cloudiness associated with the ascending motion in the front will only leave the skies clearer in the rear, which could possibly herald the next cold wave. The warm air emanates from the southwesterly wind component that caresses the Arabian Sea to mop up moisture even as the parent westerly system approaches Pakistan and onward to India. Though southerly to start with, the larger amplitude occasions the system to sweep the warm seawaters to the southwest. The fresh system is likely to approach Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining areas of northwest India by Monday, said Mr J. V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), citing model predictions. Under its influence, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and adjoining plains of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh are likely to experience snowfall and rain on Monday and Tuesday. Indications are that the system could be impacted by moisture feed from the Bay of Bengal as well, where an easterly wave has already made its presence felt. This could potentially re-enact a rare scenario when an intense western disturbance in the north set off cascading impact on pan-Indian weather on January 7, 1994. Unlike `weak' systems, the `moderate' and `active' western disturbances induce low-pressure areas to develop to their southwest (over west Rajasthan) as was the case with the latest such this season. The active ones have been known to induce more than one such `low' in the north of the country. When such a system is fed by an easterly wave from the Bay, it is likely that a third `low' throws up itself in the south. This chain of low-pressure areas along an arc from the northwest to the southeast can progressively bring rains to a wide swathe of the geography, as in 1994. According to Mr Singh, the behaviour of the easterly wave was being closely monitored. He did not rule out the chances of a `low' developing over the Bay but a final word on this would have to wait. In its update on Friday, the NCMRWF said that an existing western disturbance had perched itself over Jammu and Kashmir and north Pakistan. It is likely to move in eastward direction causing scattered snowfall in hilly regions of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours. Prevailing cold wave to severe cold wave conditions over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are likely to continue and even extend to some more parts of north India up to Bihar over the next two days. Thereafter, night temperatures over northwest India are likely to rise, with the approach of the western disturbance. Frost is likely to persist over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh and cover more parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains during next two days. The upper air cyclonic circulation over south Bay of Bengal is likely to cause scattered rainfall activity over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 2-3 days.
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