The Hindu Business Line : Cold wave may last for two more days

THE existing western disturbance over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir has outlasted its tenure, affecting the intensity of the incoming system as well as delaying its entry into India by two days.

This will also result in its being weaker than was earlier thought by the time it crosses in on Wednesday, said Mr J.V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Under the circumstances, replication of the 1994 precedent when an active western disturbance went on to trigger a chain of wet weather events across the country was less likely.

The prevailing cold wave to severe cold wave conditions over most parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are likely to continue over the next two days. The front-end of the approaching western disturbance carrying fairer weather could alone have brought some respite with it.

Night temperatures over northwest India are likely to increase by about three degree Celsius from Wednesday only. In the Capital City of New Delhi, it could rise by five to six deg Celsius to bring it almost on a par with the normal for this time of the year, Mr Singh said.

Frost is likely to continue over many parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh over the next two days as well. Since fog and frost are known to rule each other out at a given time, fog conditions are expected to drift away and confine themselves to east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The existing western disturbance over north Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir is now expected to move away to the northeast causing isolated snowfall in the hilly regions of Jammu and Kashmir during the 24 hours. Unlike those travelling east-southeast, the northeast-bound systems affect minimum territorial land.

The less than intense incoming system is likely to approach north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir by Wednesday, forecasts by the NCMRWF indicated. Under its influence, parts of northwest India, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal are likely to experience scattered to fairly widespread snowfall.

Adjoining plains of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh are likely to experience only isolated to scattered rains during Wednesday and Thursday, says the revised NCMRWF forecast.

The NCMRWF has already detected a bigger western disturbance with much larger amplitude in the making and in line to impact north and Jammu and Kashmir sooner than later. Its behaviour would be as closely monitored as it hits the home stretch.

Low pressure over Bay

Meanwhile, in the South, Friday's easterly wave has got weakened into an upper air cyclonic circulation, but a successor wave has already set up a trough of low pressure over the southwest Bay of Bengal. This is now expected to intensify into a low-pressure area during the next 24 to 48 hours and move west, as is the case with an easterly wave-generated system.

Under its influence, scattered rainfall activity is expected over south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep for three days from Tuesday.

An India Meteorological Department forecast said rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places over Pondicherry and Nicobar islands and isolated over the Andaman Islands and south interior Karnataka also.

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