Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Wednesday, Jan 11, 2006
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Wednesday, Jan 11, 2006 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather Cold wave abates, shifts to East Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , Jan. 10 TRUE to predictions, approach of a fresh but weakened western disturbance has helped abate cold wave conditions from the plains of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh in its immediate vicinity. But, concurrently, cold wave to severe cold wave conditions may continue to prevail to farther east in east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, says a forecast from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). These could even extend to parts of Jharkhand and parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal during the next two days. So much so, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been prompted to issue a warning about ground frost in some parts of east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the next two nights. The rise in mercury from the record lows to which it had plunged over the past few days has brought the fog threat back into focus. A location forecast for Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) valid for the next five days brought out by the NCMRWF put the issue in perspective. Morning and evening fog has been forecast for three days on a trot from Wednesday along with a rise in minimum temperature from 5 deg Celsius to 6 deg Celsius. Thereafter, the mercury is seen taking a tumble with the cold northwesterly winds taking centre stage over the plains. Temperature is seen progressively falling to around three deg Celsius by Sunday. A major highlight of this year's season is the striking absence of rain activity normally generated from western disturbances. The precipitation over northwest India and Himalayas is vital for replenishment of water resources as well as for agricultural purposes. Rainfall amounts and frequency of incidence may be less compared to those during monsoon, but the light to moderate precipitation is of immense value for rabi crops. But this season has seen a deficit of a massive 81 per cent as on January 2. On Tuesday, the weak western disturbance was located over Jammu and Kashmir and the adjoining region. It is likely to move away east-northeast causing only scattered snowfall/rains over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal during the next 24 hours. According to the NCMRWF, the next westerly system will approach Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining northwest Indian region by Sunday. This could clear the cold snap left behind by the preceding system, which would have moved east-northeast by then. Interestingly, forecast graphics put out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicated a major turbulence over west Uttar Pradesh on Sunday possibly generated by this east-northeast movement of the system. This turbulence will shift further east, before weakening by the next day. Model forecasts put out by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) seemed to more or less agree with this scenario. Meanwhile in the South, easterly waves have been impacting the peninsular weather over the past few days. Under the influence of one such prevailing wave, scattered rainfall activity is expected over south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep over the next two to three days. The ECMWF has indicated the possibility of a tropical disturbance taking shape over east-central Arabian Sea by Monday. This could be the result from an easterly wave propagating itself to the west after impacting the island nation of Sri Lanka. Once again, the NCEP tended to agree with this outlook.
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