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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Jan.13

THE impending cross-in of a fresh western disturbance has helped lift cold wave conditions completely from the north and northwest India while an easterly wave has set up a low-pressure area in the Indian Ocean waters south of the peninsular tip.

The fresh western disturbance is expected to cross the northwestern border in the next 24 hours and head into Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining regions. The warm and moist air in the front has already impacted the mercury levels, which have started looking up.

The system is expected to bring scattered to fairly widespread snowfall over the hilly regions of northwest India and isolated rains over the adjoining plains over the coming few days.

The region is likely to experience mainly dry weather with fog in mornings and late evenings, particularly over parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The perceived lag in rainfall activity up till now in the north and northwest has to be seen in the overall context of a corresponding negative anomaly observed in the `storm track' upstream, according to Dr K.J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Western disturbances are the only systems that bring rain to these areas, but they behave in a manner dictated by the parent systems originating from the West Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Observations suggest that winter storms have been fewer in number this year so far and rain activity marginally less over France, Spain and the UK.

But the snowfall episodes have been normal and above over the higher reaches of north and northwest India, largely because the systems have travelled to the east-northeast, giving the plains in the east-southeast the skip.

According to Dr Ramesh, western disturbances have still a long way to go and will continue to generate weather up till even March. Given this, the north and the northwest can still hope to get their due in terms of winter precipitation.

Meanwhile in the south, the existing upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal got organised in to a low-pressure area in the last 24 hours ending on Friday morning.

An NCMRWF forecast said the system would likely move in a predominantly westerly direction in the coming days.

An offshoot of an easterly wave, the system will possibly cause scattered to fairly widespread rains over south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep in the coming days. It is expected that this system might emerge into the eastern Arabian Sea and continue to persist there for sometime as well.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JWTC) has said the formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds in the area are estimated to be 30 to 35 knots. Upper level analysis indicates light to moderate vertical wind shear and favourable divergence aloft.

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has predicted that the system will move into the east-central Arabian Sea.

The National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has said that it will keep moving north-northwest and even recurve to cross the Gujarat coast by Thursday next (January 19).

On its part, the ECMWF also saw a major event being triggered over east-central India around that time.

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Cold wave lifts in North; easterly wave triggers `low'

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