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Wednesday, Jan 18, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

BEAR DOMINATED over Tuesday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish. Bull domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures recommendation: The January month contract opened around its previous close and went up further by 33 points. However, bulls could not capitalise on their initial momentum and gave way to the bears. The January month contract moved within a range of around 61 points making an intra-day low of 2793.10. It closed with a loss of around 23 points from its previous close.

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The Short position in January exited in the morning session. The buy level is placed quite far away and the sell level is placed quite nearer from its last traded price. The sell level is likely to be triggered during Wednesday's trading. The top-three tradable counters in this segment were State Bank of India, IPCL and Reliance.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. All the up-trend counters in the list are likely to be under threat for Wednesday's trading. On the other hand, two downtrend counters are likely to be terminated. There are two opportunities on either side of trading. The best is likely to be selling in ONGC. This counter is in up-trend. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

Cash segment: The Composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. Satyam moved up to third position and Titan moved down to fourth position.

A lone up-trend counter Reliance is likely to be under threat for Wednesday's trading. On the other hand, three downtrend counters are likely to be terminated. There are three opportunities on the buy side. Selling opportunity is likely to exist at Reliance Capital. The best is likely to be selling in Reliance Capital. This counter is in a sideways mode. Bull move during Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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