The Hindu Business Line : Is India `emerging'?

THE new year is always a time of stocktaking, and there is no reason why 2006 should be an exception. Is it in a `better' position in economic, social and political terms, is it in the same position, or has it slipped in any way?

It has become fashionable to say that India is one of the "emerging economies" and that its continued progress — along with that of China - is all set to label this century as the Asian Century. Indeed, this message is being repeated so many times, by so many people and with so much apparent conviction that one is willy-nilly led to believe that this is the correct situation.

But is it so? Of course, one would like to believe that it is. After all, the nation — given its wealth of resources, both human and material — deserves such a future, not to mention the fact that it is fast on its way to becoming the most populous country on the planet. This apart, that this is no empty hope devoid of any realistic assessment is suggested by a quick look at the intellectual accomplishments of its citizens both within and outside the country, and the economic prowess shown by a large number of those who have chosen to live outside it over the past few decades.

To return to reality, taking the political and social scenario first, one is tempted to say that nothing has changed (and certainly not for the better) from the past year. The intention is not to suggest that there has been a deterioration — although the Bihar Governor's latest actions following the Supreme Court's strictures on the Assembly dissolution case certainly points in that direction being, as it is, a first of sorts in that particular sphere. The point is that there is nothing to exult over and drum up public opinion in support of a rosy picture which, at least, appears to be nothing more than a figment of the imagination.

In fact, perhaps the only quantum jump towards progress on the social and political front during the past year has been the good work done by the Election Commission in holding the fairest and freest Assembly elections in Bihar in years. Indeed, one can say with some degree of confidence that the formula for holding elections which the EC employed in Bihar, if replicated in the other States, will almost certainly lead to an exercise of the franchise which will reflect the electorate's choice more faithfully than has been the case in the recent past. Now, to say this, is really to say a great deal in terms of an advancement of the electoral process, the inference being that 2005 can be described as a year which has set new standards for holding elections in the republic.

The more interesting issue is whether, on the economic front, there is really cause for Indians to rejoice in a new-found confidence which, to mean anything in practical terms, should be backed up by concrete attainments in the domestic and overseas economic spheres. Certainly, there has been some progress in the latter sphere. Internally, if one goes by the stock market's performance, things are also "looking up", as is also the message from the actual and estimated GDP growth rates.

But is this all that has to be considered when trying to assess the economic performance of a country? What about the millions living in the countryside and in the rural areas, who have traditionally been bypassed by "economic progress" in the towns and cities and corporate workplaces? To take an example, are they also being benefited by the IT prowess that is currently being shown by Indians the world over, or the increasing FDI potential of the national economy?

In other words, for the very average citizen of the republic (who by far forms the vast majority of the population), was 2005 any different from the years before in terms of the supply and quality of the accessories of the business of daily living? Admittedly, telephone connectivity has spread far and wide during the past year, which is nothing if not an improvement in the aids to living of the people at large. But can this alone justify the "emerging economy" status of the republic when it comes to considering the living standards of the average citizen? One does not know the answer as yet, but there can be no doubt that the subject should not be ignored, specially in view of the loud claims of economic progress that are being made both within the country and outside it.

Ranabir Ray Choudhury