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Tuesday, Jan 31, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

MONDAY'S trading activity witnessed Volatile movement. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear move on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: The February month contract opened with a bull gap of around 17 points. The February month contract moved with in a range of around 37 points making an intraday high of 2997.70. It closed with a loss of around seven points from its previous close.

The long position in the February month contract remains intact. The exit and sell levels for the February month contract are placed quite far away from its last traded price. In the normal course of trading, these levels are unlikely to be triggered during Tuesday's trading.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. Tata Steel moved up to second position and pushing down State Bank and Reliance to third and fourth positions respectively. Tata Motors and ICICI Bank interchanged their positions. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Reliance Capital and Reliance.

All the up trend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Tuesday's trading. On the other hand, both the down trend counters in the list are likely to be terminated. There are three opportunities on the buy side and ample opportunities on the sell side. The best for Tuesday is likely to be selling in ONGC. This counter is in up trend. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. Tata Steel moved up to seventh position and pushing down State Bank and ONGC to eighth and ninth positions respectively.

All the up trend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Tuesday's trading. On the other hand, down trend in ICICI Bank is likely to be terminated. There are two opportunities on the buy side and five opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be selling in Reliance. This counter is in up trend. Bear pressure on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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